10 reasons why the Ebola does not lead to the end of the world !

Did you hear? Apocalypse is coming. They say that in the United States, Europe and the UK are born stories about the virus, which is older than the “black death” and the Spanish flu. Ebola kills most horrible way and is going to kill all of humanity. Is this true? No. The threat of Ebola ridiculously inflated. It was a dangerous and destructive to the African continent, but in the rest of the world it is the media to blame for the fact that the virus had too many honors. Let’s face it.

It is almost impossible to catch

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When in 1918 an outbreak of the Spanish flu, Spanish flu, it hit almost a third of the world’s population. Thanks frighteningly effective propagation velocity, the virus was extraordinarily dangerous for the human race, about the same as in the movies about zombies. The question is: Can the Ebola as well?

In any case. In contrast to the Spanish flu, Ebola, it is very difficult to catch. For this to happen, the infected fluid should get in your body through a cut or one of your holes. You can wash your hands in the blood of infected and well washed, and anything else you will not.

And what about ordinary liquids, which we share every day, such as saliva and sweat? According to the World Health Organization, the live virus has never been in the pot. As for the saliva, it becomes contaminated by the most severe stages of the disease, that is, you have to kiss in French terminally ill patient to get the chance of infection. By mosquitoes and other biting insects virus is also transmitted.

In fact, Ebola so difficult to catch, that you can sit on a plane next to an infected person the entire flight and did not become infected. In one case, an infected vomited on the plane, but no one else got sick.

The speed of transmission of the virus is incredibly low

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Studying infectious disease doctors define the factor, which is called the basic reproductive value (R0). If you just, R0 tells us how many other people can infect infected person. In HIV is set to 4, which means that one HIVinfected person is expected in the “ideal” case infect four people in a single life. Super-type measles viruses have a value of 18, which makes them extremely contagious. In Ebola maximum 1.5-2. That is, if not isolate an infected person, it is unlikely to infect more than the other two.

Mathematically, even a relatively low prevalence may lead to widespread infection, if left unchecked. But in the civilized world the current Ebola R0 is less than unity. Because the virus is spread through bodily fluids, it feels better in places and cultures with a low level of health care and where burial rituals involve very close contact with the body. In countries with decent health infrastructure did not find the virus development. It can be easy to stop the insulation, technically just close the door.

The virus is not transmitted by airborne droplets

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All the fears about Ebola is based on the fact that he can gain the ability to be transmitted by airborne droplets. Scientists assure us that this will not happen, but we know that viruses mutate. Technically, this is possible?

Technically, it is possible that the sandwich will become president. Although theoretically Ebola certainly can mutate, he must break all the laws of the transmission of viruses. According to WHO, there is no evidence that Ebola has a chance transmitted by airborne droplets. No virus in history to acquire this way of spreading so quickly. Even the super-fast mutating viruses like influenza and HIV never changed methods of distribution, and so do the Ebola (remember her R0).

It is highly unlikely that Ebola is transmitted through coughing and sneezing in the style of the flu. Ebola does not breed in large numbers in the lungs and throat, so he has little chance. The virus does not use cold as a platform for development. In addition, respiratory pathogens spread around the world for weeks or even days. If Ebola learned to fly, we would have learned.

If Ebola virus mutates, it will become more moderate

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Although it seems illogical, most viruses wants you to live. The most successful precisely not kill viruses within 12 hours. For example, there is a virus HSV-1, which quietly resides in a latent state in the body, allowing it to infect 90% of Americans age 60.

Compared with Darwinian monster like that, Ebola ridiculously pathetic. He kills their hosts so quickly that he did not have time to spread. This is wrong in every way natural selection.

Much more likely, as a result of a successful mutation virus will become softer. Ebola is it will be an evolutionary victory, because it can spread to more people. For us, it will mean that the virus would be less dangerous.

He does not have an incubation period

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One of the worst viruses is their ability incubation period: the time between when you pop onto it and when symptoms appear. During this time, the disease like flu can still be contagious, since the virus is easily sweeping the planet, and you do not even know about it. Fortunately, not as Ebola.

According to WHO, patients with Ebola can not share the disease until symptoms seem. Even if you split the game and a cup of vomit with his best friend a day after he picked up the virus, you will not become infected. This is extremely useful in combating disease. Since most people tend to notice that their friends are sick Ebola, they make the right conclusions and do not behave as usual.

As an added bonus: the virus ceases to be contagious after the symptoms disappear, so catch it from the survivor is also impossible.

Until now, the number of cases is extremely small

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Remember the swine flu? In 2009, we were sure that this flu outbreak is going to annihilate all life on Earth. We did not even notice at first flu spread around the world, but abroad they are sick, 60 million people. How much this time ill people to experience such a storm in the media?

Around 8,000 people worldwide. Although it is 8000 – it’s too much and badly for all parties involved, it demonstrates how phenomenally Ebola spreads slowly. In some countries had only one case of Ebola, and that all were alive. In the United States, for example, a total of only three people ill. It is known that in Russia there is no one.

In comparison, for example, the bubonic plague struck seven people annually. But we are still far from being able to Black Death” pandemic repeated her exploits in Europe.

We have experienced similar

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In 2008, Michelle Barnes off the plane from Uganda, not knowing that it was a passenger. Her body hid deadly Marburg virus, a close relative of Ebola with almost the same symptoms and the rate of spread. Over the next few days began to show symptoms, and these days Barnes in contact with almost 260 people. Guess how many of them are laid down in a bed with Marburg?

Not one. Barnes survived and did not infect anyone else. She did not even know she had a viral infection.

In the Netherlands, another woman was in the same part of Uganda, in which Barnes met Marburg. Again, no one got sick, despite all the warnings of local authorities.

And it’s not just a fluke. Literally every single case, when reported in the west of Marburg, death and infection rate were not significant. In a flash, 1975 in Johannesburg, only three people were infected and one died. Even the famous outbreak in 1967 in Frankfurt and Belgrade claimed the lives of seven of the thirty-one patients. And that was when we knew almost nothing about viruses, and medical procedures are less stringent.

Our infrastructure is very good‘ ”

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What is common in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, in addition to outbreaks of Ebola? The answer is: very poor medical infrastructure. In all three countries, health care is nothing more than the result of black humor. Patients are often placed in twos and threes on the bed. Water and electricity is not enough. Preventive health care in general is not, and do not treat patients if they can not afford the necessary drugs. In Liberia, many hospitals do not have protective equipment and protected personnel. In such circumstances – of course even lame Ebola virus finds its way.

Compare medicine there, and in the West are two different things. In Germany, for example, there are seven hospitals specially equipped to deal with Ebola. The health care system in the UK in general is so good that the government thinks that the total number of cases will never be double-digit. In the United States subject to the measures to stop Ebola. People just have nothing to fear.

We are about a vaccine

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In 2005, a virologist Heinz Feldman has created a vaccine that stops the spread of the Ebola virus in macaques before or after infection. Since at that time no one was interested in funding after the Ebola vaccine to human trials is not reached. However, in 2009 it experienced the German workers who accidentally pricked a needle infected with Ebola. The vaccine did not cause her any harm, and possibly saved her life.

This is not the only treatment for Ebola, which are now being tested. According to Professor Jeremy Farrar Tropical Medicine, there are several potential candidates, all of which can provide some protection against the virus. By ordinary standards, of course, they are not ready for people. But if the question arises of choosing between an untested vaccine and a high probability of death as it happens in people suffering in West Africa people make a very definite choice.

The threat caused by just panic in the media

You probably can not wait to find out why we hear so much about viruses that hit a small number of people. Why do newspapers publish stories and resources about how doctors all over the world deliberately lie to us and try to make money, and that the world is threatened by the cover. There are a number of reasons, and one very simple: People hawala. (Pardonte).

Look back and look at any history of the pandemic in the last ten years. It becomes apparent that only negative media coverage of the event. During the SARS epidemic, Daily Mail blew tabloid headlines SARS may become more serious AIDS”, predicting more than a billion infections. Nevertheless, in 2004 there was not a single case. When there was the swine flu, several articles were that it can kill up to 120 million people. In the UK, the effect of the panic was worse than the flu. By the summer of 2009, only 30 people died, but the panic caused by the media seriously tainted the health sector.

After all, if the media will continue the policy of intimidation, it may prove to be right. The virus can really devastate the whole Earth in the future. But it will certainly not Ebola. Soon everything will calm down and forget.

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Published Vasily I. Smirnov, 21/10/2014 at 07:50

One Response to “10 reasons why the Ebola does not lead to the end of the world !”

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