Lethal Rubicon Obama !

Летальный Рубикон Обамы. Рискнут ли США поставить Порошенко тяжелое вооружение?

Whether to risk the US Poroshenko put heavy weapons?

As reported in the resurrection of the American edition of The New York Times, the Obama administration has never been closer to the realization of its long-standing threat. Washington could open for Ukraine “hot military-technical line.” We are talking about the supply of arms and all that can make Donbass capitulate.

However, on Monday, State Department spokesman Jen Psak clarified that the final decision on arms Ukraine yet. At the same time, she stressed that no options are not excluded.” On the question whether the supply of arms Kiev provoke indirect” US war with Russia, the speaker of the State Department said: “Nobody wants to” mediate “the war with Russia.”

Still surrounded Obama lacked unanimity on this issue. Since there was a danger to provoke an “arms race” in Ukraine within the framework of the so-called “Hybrid war”. In addition, it should be recognized that the supply of lethal military equipment, from the point of view of international law, may be regarded as interference in internal Ukrainian opposition. Crafty term “ATO”, invented by Kiev to not call a spade a spade, can hardly mislead international lawyers. Thus, the supply of weapons will be another step towards the escalation of tensions with the prospect of escalating “hybrid” war into a hot (between Russia and NATO under the auspices of the US). The first step in this direction has already been made a few days ago the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Stepan Poltorak confirmed the participation of foreign nationals in the fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In fairness, it‘s about as long as volunteers.

Chief lobbyist of Ukraine means of warfare acts chief of the armed forces of the US and NATO in Europe, General Philip Breedlove. Until recently, an active opponent of this idea was the Advisor to the President for National Security Affairs Susan Rice. However, according to the publication, it is ready to change their point of view. “The President of the United States has not yet decided on the supply of such lethal aid. However, after a series of serious setbacks that Ukrainian forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is considering new military aid, “says NYT. According to the newspaper, officials persuade Obama to send Kiev missiles, armored vehicles and radars worth $ 3 billion. A 2 February, a group of authoritative retirees represented by the former deputy head of the Pentagon Michele Flournoy, a former commander of NATO forces James Stavridis and the former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daldera provide justification to supply large quantities of weapons to Ukraine.

Prior to that put out the fire with gasoline in Ukraine, openly called only odious Senator McCain.

As evidence that the fatal Rubicon can be passed, advocates visit US Secretary of State John Kerry in Kiev, which will be held on February 5. In the Ukrainian capital, a senior official will arrive with an impressive backing band consisting of a Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff US Armed Forces General Martin Dempsey and assistant to the president for national security Susan Rice. According to the American edition of these policies declare the “openness to discuss the issue of granting Ukraine lethal aid.”

Recall still Washington supplied Ukraine so-called non-lethal weapons body armor, night vision devices, medical devices.

In a conversation with “SP” head of the analytical department at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Hramchihin questioned the assertion that the heavy weapons of the American or NATO production was supplied to the theater of military operations in the Donbass.

Another thing is that this may be a former Soviet technique, which is still standing armed with Eastern European countries that are members of NATO. Such as Poland or Romania. Say that somewhere in the combat zone was discovered NATO caliber projectile is absurd. The question is, what does it shoot if the Ukrainian Soviet artillery designed to gauge?

A small arms found in Donetsk airport, generally does not prove anything. As you know, in the US it may acquire private person in the store. Ukraine has got it, most likely, with mercenaries from private military companies.

“SP”: Why, despite the bellicose statements, to the question of the supply of heavy weapons Washington fits very carefully?

Obama is in a very difficult position. It strongly presses Congress. On the other hand, the president of the United States understands that the results can be counterproductive. Open delivery of heavy weapons would only worsen the situation in Ukraine. Because Russia will then announce that it is also in this respect no more holding back. As a result of the military situation in Kiev will become not better, but worse.

“SP”: The more that Western weapons still need to learn.

If we are talking about serious art, rather than on small arms from the Soviet relearn on US weapons systems is very difficult. Accordingly, in the Ukraine in large numbers have to bring trainers from the US. That is, it will take time to introduce new technology. But what if these instructors taken prisoner? In addition, virtually guaranteed that the technology will have shtatovskih militias. Obama probably guess what this means. But apparently, the policy is often stronger than common sense.

“SP”: What kind of weapon in the first place asked to Kiev security forces?

They need any advanced weapons. But no one will sell. A cheap and modern does not happen. Even Poland refused to hand over the Soviet technique on grant terms. The only thing that may be involved, it’s about anti-military complex. Air defense Kiev do not need because of a lack of volunteers aviation. As for private aviation, Canada last year offered 20 cars free F-18, but the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine refused. And rightly so. Because in the development of this technology will take several years. And the amount of money will be spent on maintenance. It’s old aircraft. So we’ll have to prepare not only pilots, but also technicians. Plus we have the means to counter militia aviation.

In Ukraine and Soviet aircraft problems. Why would she need the same old, besides import?

“SP”: – And what about small arms and mortars?

This stuff they themselves drown. The only thing missing is the anti-missile systems. This is the most obvious option. But again just a few days after the receipt of the samples will be in the militia, and there may be sent to Russia. I think our military and technical specialists are waiting with bated hope present in the form of, for example, the anti-missile system the US Army Javelin. Any country is very interested in obtaining samples coming from other countries, it helps to develop their own military-industrial complex.

“SP”: The militia set a new goal – to reach the borders of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and only from the position of a new line of contact to negotiate with Kiev. Ukraine satisfied with this option, or she prepares forces to counterattack?

I’m back in September, when they were entered into the Minsk Agreement, said that sooner or later a truce go into another full-scale war. Because both sides clearly “nedovoevali” and are confident that they have “stolen victory”. Right now they are dovoevyvat” as long as the parties are against the limit of their capabilities: human, moral, organizational, financial. Wars end only if at least one of the parties can not fight any more. Then she capitulates. If both can not, then they agree on the world. When this happens, then the war will end.

America does not go to the direct supply of weapons to Ukraine, as in this case Russia will get the moral right to mirror the action in response, said military analyst Michael Tymoshenko.

In fact, Ukraine, and without enough military equipment. As they say, a 20-year war without stopping. You just need to put in fighting shape his technique where wiring rotted where seals sagged. It is clear that the tanks, BPM, and so on for a long time stood on the storage bases, nobody renovate.

Aviation is the same story. In his time in Ukraine tank was almost more than we do (3000 pieces). Kharkov Plant. Malyshev produced T-64, produces new BMP.

“SP”: Why Kiev authorities are literally begging the US weapons. What are they missing?

– First of all mind. There’s no one to command. At all levels, starting with the sergeant. And recruits do not want to fight. Why would they put their heads with fools? Just look how people run from mobilization. How much equipment is not supplied, will still fight nobody.

Editor in chief of National Defense Igor Korotchenko not agree with the thesis that the Ukrainian army did not need military equipment.

To make political decisions deliver or not, will be Obama. Legal barriers no longer exist. Congress in December adopted the “Act on the support of Ukraine“, which involves any help until the supply of lethal weapons.

“SP”: This will be enough to break the resistance of the militias?

Immediately say, Ukraine will not deliver US weapons. And above all, of the former Warsaw Pact countries that are now included in NATO. That is, it will not be a new Soviet equipment. Hence, the sum of the US can finance the delivery or Poland or Hungary or the Czech Republic. It is possible that will be used barter schemes. That is, instead of the past in Ukraine Soviet weapons, these countries will receive US.

In addition, Washington can begin deliveries Kiev separate party special weapons, night vision devices, optics, military, communications, navigation, sniper weapons, radar to pinpoint the location of the artillery batteries. The main thing is the anti-tank weapons. Not to mention clothing, gear, body armor. Ukraine can also get American “Hummer”, based on which is mounted firearms.

“SP” a kind of modern “carts” during the Civil War, the beginning of XX century.

This is a much more serious armored vehicle.

“SP”: All of the above will change the balance of forces?

Of course. Because Ukraine will have quite a significant military arsenal, allowing it to better level to conduct military operations. In these circumstances, Russia, of course, will be forced to react. Both politically and practically. If Americans really begin large-scale arms supplies to Ukraine, it unleashes a Russian arms for similar actions against the armies of the DNI and the LC.
Already Ukrainian General Staff provides lists of the necessary equipment in the office of the US military attaché in Kiev. That is, all formal requests are made. It now remains the last word for Barack Obama, his hands are completely untied.

 

There are no responses yet

Leave a Reply

RSS for Posts RSS for Comments