“North fist” against the United States Russia: Kaliningrad and the threat of nuclear forces.

Leonid Nersisian

After the beginning of the crisis Ukrainian stream anti-Russian propaganda in the world reached a magnitude since the Soviet Union. But if in most EU countries are relatively neutral forces calling for reconciliation, the Nordic countries and the Baltic line towards Russia as much as possible radical and destructive. In these countries, the US influence is constantly growing: in the Baltic Independent States is no longer quite as well in Scandinavia process actively goes in the same direction. Interestingly, of the four Nordic countries (otnesёm them and Finland – it does not always appear in this geographical concept) NATO includes only Norway and Denmark, and Sweden and Finland until adhere to non-aligned status, at least in words. Nevertheless, the wave of anti-Russian hysteria and the militarization of engulfing and these two states.

In the course is disinformation and lies at the highest level: that only cost the story of the Russian nuclear submarine allegedly swim in Swedish territorial waters. But that’s why it took a heavy missile submarines there to swim and how such an object could be missed, no one answered – irresponsibility in politics is now in vogue. Norway is generally constantly pours “crocodile tears” – drawing attention to the flights of Russian strategic aviation (which, incidentally, never violate any boundaries), and most recently put forward a ridiculous assumption that Russian research vessels “spies” for them, Located in a former submarine base Olavsvern. Base, the authorities in Norway a few years ago sold themselves as the cost of its operation was huge, and large military sense it was not – in the war with Russia alone will not save it, though, and really is a powerful refuge for submarines, and the global conflict underwater part of the Navy (Navy) Norway is negligible force – only six diesel-electric submarines class Ula.

Rhetoric in Denmark and Finland is not that hard, and the number of absolutely obvious misinformation voiced by officials, much less. But we of the words. And the actions are no different – Denmark has already agreed to take part in the formation of European missile defense system (Euro-ABM), and Finland is actively developing its interaction Armed Forces (AF) with the armies of other Nordic and Baltic countries (especially Sweden) and, of course, with the US Armed Forces .

Military tandem Sweden – Finland

Most actively goes establish the military tandem Sweden – Finland, and although the intention to establish a military alliance with the participation of these countries have been officially denied, in fact, the opposite occurs. Countries expressed their willingness to establish joint land and naval brigade, and in late March held joint exercises of the Air Force (IAF). They also attended the US Air Force who flew into Estonian Amari airfield. Moreover – Air Force integration of the two countries will continue to grow – instead of 62 aging American fighter F / A-18 is going to Finland to buy or Swedish SAAB JAS-39 Gripen new modification or French Dassault Rafale, moreover most likely choice will fall on “Swedes”. In both cases, the interaction of the Air Force will grow significantly, and in the case of the purchase of JAS-39 will peak – even weapons and spare parts will be unified.

Now, the key challenge for the United States in this area is drawing these countries into NATO. Population of states actively preparing for it – in the case of another escalation of Ukrainian conflict, the entry of Sweden and Finland in NATO could be a matter of time.

Baltic bridgehead

Active placement of US troops on the territory of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as going there permanently NATO exercises indicate that these three countries will lay a foundation for NATO forces, including aviation Scandinavian countries. The geographical location of these countries can simultaneously apply a blow out in the direction of the Kaliningrad region surrounded by NATO and in the direction of Leningrad and Pskov regions. The armed forces themselves Baltic countries is extremely weak and few – in the amount they can only put about 23 thousand soldiers, it does not boast any significant amount of military equipment, and the Air Force in these countries are virtually absent. So that the main role of these states – become a springboard for NATO troops and the battlefield – not the most promising prospects, but it can not be interested in anti-national authorities of these countries, “dancing to the tune of” overseas “ally”.

Norway: Arctic Oil bait

Among the Scandinavian countries, Norway is different, perhaps, the highest degree of anti-Russian hysteria. And unlike the Baltic states – there is also a substrate material – namely Arctic oil reserves, which the Norwegians have serious types, however, as we are. It is applied to pressure from the US, leading to a unique “resonance”. In addition, Americans can “warm up” the Arctic appetite Norwegians, killing two birds with this – creating a new enemy for Russia and increasing its supply of arms. Thus, Norway is in a kind of “trap”, which is based her own energy ambitions. With regard to purely military component – that Norway is strong for its Air Force and Navy, as well as a high level of training soldiers. Very soon will begin deliveries of American fighters 5th generation F-35, which will be purchased in the amount of 52 units, in addition to (and in the future – for replacement) to 57 F-16s.

“North fist” against Russia

As we can notice, the above countries increasingly militarized and unite around an anti-Russian ideology. Under the auspices of the US military formed a kind of “fist” threatening the north-western borders of Russia. What forces and in what areas can be brought against the Russian Federation, these states?

1) Powerful air grouping capable of acting from Murmansk to Kaliningrad region – the entire length of the conventional front lines. In total it includes nearly 300 fighters – 62 F-18s, 134 JAS-39 Gripen and 102 F-16s. All planes of easy class, but a good level and in a very serious amount.

2) Two naval force – the first in the “Northern Seas” (North, Norwegian, Barents), represented mainly by the Norwegian Navy. It includes 5 frigates type Fridtjof Nansen, equipped with anti-ship missiles (ASM) Naval Strike Missile and combat information and control system Aegis, 6 missile boats Skjold type with the same rockets and 6 type diesel submarines Ula.

The second – in the Baltic Sea, represented the Navy Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Here, the battle can be thrown: 5 Danish frigates with US Harpoon anti-ship missiles and a good air defense system; 5 Swedish diesel-electric submarines with torpedoes and 9 corvettes with RCC RBS-15, 5 of which class Visby, created by technology “Stealth”; 8 Finnish missile boats with RCC RBS-15 (maximum launch range of 200 km), mine-layers 6 and 13 minesweepers.

3) The Army – Danish forces here, we will not consider because they are geographically more “detached” from the scene. Finland, Sweden and Denmark in the sum can put 31,000 soldiers, 284 German Leopard 2 and about 1,000 units of various artillery. More 23000, however, very much least to start with technology, have the Baltic countries. As you can see, the land forces – the most weak point of these countries.

In addition, there is the American presence in the Baltic States – while small, only a few dozen pieces of equipment and several hundred military personnel, who have officially arrived at the doctrine, but there is not much in a hurry to go back to the US.

Kaliningrad region – the purpose №1

Kaliningrad region, located virtually surrounded by NATO forces, due to the presence of only land borders with Poland and Lithuania is the most vulnerable target for a potential enemy. Already Lithuania often arranges problems in moving goods on its territory, it is theoretically possible to complete the land blockade, as well as energy.

Russian forces stationed in the Kaliningrad region, not very large, but actively rearming, for example, in 2012 there were the most advanced anti-aircraft missile systems S-400. However, a small number of troops – about 10 thousand people.

Simultaneously from Poland and the Baltic States in the fight can be thrown up to 80 thousand troops – and that without US support. Force “North fist” can be a powerful air support for ground forces by Polish and try to create a naval blockade of Kaliningrad. Resist this attempt to take full siege in Kaliningrad is the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy – his forces are roughly equal the combined forces of the Navy “Northern fist”: 2 destroyers Project 956, 2 modern patrol ship project 11540 (built using the technology of “Stealth”), 4 patrol boats 20380, 12 missile boats, 3 diesel-electric submarines. All these ships are armed with anti-ship missiles of various types, most of which outperforms the Scandinavian and American RCC. So that the victory in this confrontation is more dependent on the level of training of the crew and third-party factors such as intelligence, etc.

The task of the Armed Forces in the event of such an aggressive attempt to take the Kaliningrad region should be an early break through a land corridor through Latvia and Lithuania – there may be something to try to prevent ground forces and aviation Sweden, Norway and Finland, by linking part of the forces of the Western military district (ZVO) in Leningrad region . Of course, the secondary cooling power, which is concentrated to 40% of the personnel of the Armed Forces, is incomparably more powerful, but nevertheless forces “Northern fist” can buy time until the arrival of reinforcements from Western Europe and the United States.

Limited nuclear conflict

Is this realistic scenario of a major European war in the presence of large arsenals of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons from the opposing sides? If the main “battleground” will be the same the Baltic States, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Finland, Norway – ie non-nuclear states, it is real. Nuclear strikes will not be applied by states possessing them. Nevertheless, in this scenario, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is little doubt – this is especially important for us, as the number of NATO armies superior to our several times almost all indicators. As a result – the losers in such a war will be precisely those countries that are now the most stand up for the fight against Russia. And the winners will not be in it – both camps will have destroyed hundreds of thousands of soldiers and military equipment destroyed mountains. Nevertheless humanity, as history shows, can not long exist without wars – and their not in Europe (large) since 1945. How many more years of nuclear weapons can deter aggression and hatred? It is clear that the war would be burned in Europe in March, 2014, if not for this constraint.

Conclusions and prospects

1) “Northern Fist” is really formed. Its purpose is yet geopolitical pressure on Russia and endangering the Kaliningrad region.

2) groups of troops in Kaliningrad should be maintained as far as combat-ready state, its number, if possible, should be increased.

3) the United States by creating a “mini” military unit in Scandinavia and the Baltics more compressible ring of military encirclement of Russia.

4) Norway, despite its ambition, is still far from being able to compete with Russia in the Arctic. Russian Northern Fleet is a serious power with which it is impossible to compete with 6 diesel submarines, several frigates and missile boats. In Russia there are 45 submarines, including 23 nuclear power, aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov”, heavy nuclear cruiser “Peter the Great” and many other ships.

5) In addition to geopolitical reasons and the US struggle with Russia, there is a much more urgent task – to get to work on the military-industrial complex “fullest”, despite the economic problems in most European countries. Now, even conditionally poor Baltic states start to allocate any money for the purchase of military equipment.

6) The Great War in Europe can still occur – the voltage level at some point really close to critical. And the presence of a large number of weapons and active preparations for war can cause extra confidence.

7) The next step is to expand the project can become a European missile defense interceptors accommodation in Scandinavia. Missile defense system GMD (Ground-based Midcourse Defence) will be able to intercept part of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), flying over the North Pole to the United States. And most importantly, to intercept them before breeding fighting units – in fact most of the modern Russian ICBM has multiple warheads. Such an alignment is quite possible after 2020, when it will be implemented by the present stage of European missile defense and would be “brought to mind» GMD. The temptation to foment war after such a step would be, of course, even higher.

8) The countries included in this new anti-Russian bloc, are not beneficiaries – rather, it, in which case, have the worst of all, since it is they who will be the battleground. Prior to the United States, as before, far away.

9) All countries that are close to Russia and hosts the elements of the US missile defense must be notified at the highest level that they will be the very first target for the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation, and they do not get security, and vice versa – a mortal danger. The application must not be at the level of ambassador, as was done in Denmark, and at the highest. The population of these countries needs to know what their governments are solutions.

 

 

 

 

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