Signs of the Third World War !

Приметы Третьей мировой. Нарушение Киевом минских соглашений может привести к «опосредованной войне» между Россией и НАТО

Violation of Kiev Minsk agreements can lead to a “proxy war” between Russia and NATO.

In the event of a “pro-Russian separatists” US will begin deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, which will lead to the beginning of a proxy war between Russia and NATO in Europe, says the journalist of the newspaper The Daily Mail James Forsyth.

He supports his conclusions referring to a member of the British government. This can lead to the beginning of the worst “match” between Washington and Moscow since the Cold War. Proxy wars will be fought on the eastern border of Europe, the author points out.

At the top of the British government are worried that such a development is becoming more likely. Senior officials believe that Vladimir Putin is interested in resolving the conflict only on his terms, the author writes. “Putin will do everything not to allow NATO and the EU to expand further to the east” – quoted “Russian Spring” the words of one senior British officials.

The US Congress has a lot of pressure on Obama, urging him to take action.

Meanwhile, on February 26 guide Kiev DNR laid an ultimatum, saying that if they continue shelling by the Ukrainian security officials allotted heavy armed militias will be returned to the position tomorrow. According to the head of DNR Alexander Zakharchenko, the army of the republic already took 90% of their arms, and Kiev reciprocal steps not taken. Zakharchenko said that the attack on the position of APU militias continue. There have been new attacks and Gorlovki Elenovka. If they do not stop, the militia would be considered that the new agreement Ming thwarted. Chapter DNR noted that the text of the ultimatum handed to sign the OSCE representatives.

How likely is it that the fighting resumed? Whether this will lead to a “proxy war” between Russia and NATO?

– Until now, there was reason to believe that the truce gradually established – the director of the Center for Strategic conditions Ivan Konovalov. – The beginning of a real withdrawal of heavy weapons. There was no fierce fighting. However, the line of contact between the militia and the Ukrainian security forces remains. So the military clashes are inevitable.

The question is whether to wait until the full regime of silence. This largely depends on what the wind blows from Kiev. A situation in Kiev is not fully controlled by anybody. There is strong party of war, forced to crouch in front of which Peter Poroshenko. Ukrainian politics is influenced by many power groups. Which one will prevail is uncertain. Take the story of the creation of alternative Staff warlords, which will include the most odious figures: Dmitry Yarosh, Simon Semenchenko. One can not but note that this will create a headquarters in Dnepropetrovsk. And, therefore, it will operate under the control of the governor Kolomoiskiy. It seems that coming a serious struggle for power between the oligarch Kolomoisky and “former” oligarch Poroshenko. In this situation, ensure that no provocation at the front impossible. And only one provocation – and all truce could explode …

“SP”: – If the provocation has done its job, and will resume hostilities begin open US arms deliveries to Ukraine?

– Such a scenario can not be excluded. Although the United States, despite its harsh rhetoric against Russia, cautious. Raises questions list of weapons that American experts suggest supply to Ukraine. It drones, light armored vehicles, anti-tank missiles. Especially strange that it includes air defenses. In Ukraine, its air defense system remained at a relatively good level. While the hostilities in the sky Donbas hardly conducted. Ukrainian aircraft is practically destroyed. And only one militia attack aircraft flies. It turns out that supplied weapons handy little Ukrainian army. Especially in the offensive. That is the purpose of these supplies more psychological: to show that the poor Ukraine is forced to defend itself against aggression. But in general, with regard to arms supplies to Ukraine in the American establishment is no unity. Many – against. And Europe is very worried that the United States will decide to take this step. Second Minsk agreements were largely concluded it was because the Europeans saw that further progress will militias the United States an excuse for arms. I think that in case of failure of the Minsk agreements, Europe will be strengthened to try to influence the United States. Europeans do not need hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.

“SP”: – Can we expect that in case of resumption of hostilities by militias will be able to take Mariupol?

– Mariupol, most likely, will go under the control of militias. Perhaps it does not need any offensive. In the city could start a rebellion. Residents have extremely negative attitude to the Ukrainian law enforcement officers, especially to parts of the National Guard. Storm the city on the forehead is fraught with serious casualties among the civilian population.

By the way, fighting under Debaltseve showed that the armed forces of New Russia, although winning the Ukrainian army, but still difficult. Therefore, the strength to go on Slavic and Kramators’k have militias, most likely unavailable. Major events can turn on Mariupol direction.

– And then and now political scientists repeated the mantra that “a truce in general preserved” – said the expert of the Association of military, political scientist Alexander Perendzhiev. – But I believe that there is no truce was not long after Minsk-1. No it now. Shelling of cities, clashes small units – all this is obvious. Although we see that kind of terms of agreements are respected. First of all – the militias. However, under the guise of “truce” and she and the other side is preparing for a new round of fighting.

“SP”: – How to behave in the case of the Americans taking militias Mariupol?

– Of course, the degree of the war will increase. But to open intervention by the armies of other countries will not reach. Mariupol in any case – the main strategic object around which the struggle unfold. Sea lanes essential Novorossia. Possession of Mariupol port in terms of the economy will make Novorossia self-sufficient. And geopolitically greatly increase the importance of the DNI and the LC.

Yeah, maybe the US will be opened to supply arms that they already deliver. It is, rather, a psychological step, designed primarily for domestic American consumer. They say, look, we are helping to fight democratic Ukraine with Russian aggression. Russophobia, unfortunately, has become quite profitable political trend, not only in the US but also in some European countries.

In any case, the course of hostilities US supplies will not fundamentally change. Armed Forces of Ukraine show low combat capability. It is evident that the country already live it to the limit of their resources. The economy is collapsing. Military supplies, anyway, someone has to pay. Modern weapons – costs a lot of money, which Ukraine is not, and is not expected.

Most likely, everything will be reduced to supplying obsolete weapons. A sort of “Army consumer goods” in the form of machine guns and mortars, the weather for the Ukrainian army did not do it.

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