Tag Archives: ethnicity

Brussels has hatched appalling human closing the mouth directive !

Brüsselis on välja hautud õõvastav inimeste suukorvistamise direktiiv


The European Union has reached a new level. It has been designed for tolerance to the directive, which is sent to each national parliament for approval soon. Even the Soviet Union, communism contemporary moral code of the builder of this pales next to the document. During the Soviet era was the Iron Curtain, deep poverty and the lack of democracy, but there was so much inequality, as well as the mass migration from Africa and the Arab countries. Thus, the current situation is many times worse, although the degree of imbecility. In addition to the difficult lives of Eastern European countries with low wages, unemployment and coping difficulties, we can now shut down and start to extol the protein in only a third of the world work-shy sex-hungry immigrants, homosexuals, feminists and our rulers. But under the guise of democracy, with the utmost attempt to impose an ideological dictatorship, as in Soviet times, where the poor were not allowed anyone to complain about life, but this was by and a good face on it. This way arrive the “wise heads” think big multiracial, multicultural,multi-ethnic , homosexual and multiperverted, genderless happiness across the surface. Nation-states as a serious obstacle in this way be eliminated. Euro Utopia, however, does not work, however, because the roots are programmed into him eternal and self-destructive conflict between Western and invasive ultraliberal viable third world nations archaic traditions, religion and culture of the past simply destroy weaker than the first. Statute of the consequences of implementing apart (i.e., the culture and the peoples of the disappearance) of its authors, unfortunately, can not be bothered to think about. Make sure the statute itself goof …

The Statute is the promotion of tolerance.

Part of the first.

For the purposes of this statute, the following definitions shall apply:

a) “The Group” means the number of people who share a racial or cultural background, ethnic origin, or religious beliefs, or shared a common language, the same gender identity or any other characteristic similar to connecting them.

b) “group against defamation” means publicly made derogatory comments directed at the group, just as it is defined in paragraph (a) – or a group of members – with a view to incite violence, slander a group of ridicule or group of target group against false accusations.

c) “Hatred of crime” means any personal or property crime against the event, which is the target of becoming a victim of the selected person the actual or presumed membership (or acquisitions) of a group, as that term is defined in paragraph (a).

d) “Tolerance” means a complex and diverse groups, as defined in paragraph (a), a distinct identity, expression, preservation and development of the respect and acceptance. This definition takes preconceived’s diverse groups the possibility of co-existence in society.

Part of the second.

This statute provides:

a) the promotion of tolerance, thereby weakening the ties that hold a society together.

b) To promote tolerance between different societies.

c) to prevent hate crimes, as defined in section 1 c

d) condemns any manifestations of intolerance, which is biased, biased and fanatic.

e) Take concrete steps in the fight against intolerance, especially with a view to eliminating racism, racial prejudice, ethnic discrimination, religious intolerance, totalitarian ideologies, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, homophobia and anti-feminism.

Part of the third.

Right tolerance must be guaranteed to all groups, especially in relation to use of rights, which are enshrined in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Part 4. Limitations:

In Part 3, the following restrictions apply to the rights guaranteed and, if they are implemented in a democratic society in a proportionate manner.

a) National and International Security, b) Public order c) Public policy d) Public Morale e) Public Health

f) the protection of the rights and freedoms of other persons

Part 5. Migrants:

a) Tolerance (as that term is defined in Section 1 (d)), must be guaranteed to all groups, whether it be the long-term entrenched social groups or newly formed groups, which have arisen as a result of migration from other countries.

b) Migrants from other countries, in turn, must adhere to the principle of coexistence of different groups in society.

c) If the migrant arrived from another country who has allowed its territory, but who have not been granted citizenship, obviously do not want to meet different groups of society, the principle of co-existence, a person can be expected to expulsion (the application in accordance with international law).

Part 6. Implementation:

In order to ensure the implementation of this statute, the government must:

a) respect the responsibility of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups of special protection.

b) set up a special administrative unit, in order to organize the implementation of this statute, it is the perception bias in existing control mechanisms.

c) Establishing an independent body for the supervision of the tolerance – which is made up of outside independent persons operating in the public service – and having the power to engage in the promotion of tolerance.

The Commission shall have the right to:

a) to issue general guidance and specific recommendations on the application of the relevant measures

b) give an opinion on the extent to which this statute is implemented.

c) the distribution according to the guidelines, recommendations and the views of the media and through other channels.

d) To promote international cooperation with similar institutions in other countries.

Part 7. A criminal record:

The following activities shall be considered a criminal offense and are punishable aggravating circumstances:

a) Anger offense, as that term is defined in Section 1 (c)

b) incitement to violence group, as defined in section 1 (a), a.

c) the group directed against the lime, as it is defined in Section 1 (b).

d) totalitarian ideologies, xenophobia or anti-semitism unequivocal approval.

e) the public denial of the Holocaust or the denial of public acceptance.

f) any other act of genocide by the International Criminal Court to criminalize public approval or denial.

Young people who have been convicted of any criminal offense listed in paragraph (a), shall undergo a rehabilitation program, which has been drawn up to develop tolerance.

Paragraph (a) above offenses are not considered political offenses extradition.

Paragraph (a) victims of crimes listed in the legal basis for the present action against the perpetrator and the right to compensation.

Paragraph (a) above crimes have a right to free legal aid, irrespective of the victim’s economic situation.

The government must ensure that:

a) school programs, the younger to the older grade level, will be introduced to subjects that help students to accept diversity and to foster a climate of tolerance of different cultures and characteristics.

b) Similar courses should be added to the military and law enforcement agencies täiendkoolitusprogrammidesse.

c) refresher courses for tolerance and awareness-raising courses should be available to different social groups, with a focus on professional groups.

d) tolerance awareness courses, educational materials (including curricula) prepares the Board of Education to meet the demands.

e) training providers, in turn, undergo training for trainers to prepare them for their tolerance, awareness-raising courses on the other.

f) Board of Education must ensure that the courses of study materials do not contain any clues or labeling of any part 1 (a), defined as a group.

g) It is desirable to produce a climate of tolerance, the promotion of books, plays, newspaper and magazine articles, films and television programs, which is financially supported by the government, for its part.

9. Part of the Mass Media:

a) The Government shall ensure that the public media (television and radio) separates their programs to the extent prescribed airtime to promote a climate of tolerance.

b) The Government encourages the privately owned mass media (including the written press) to contribute to the promotion of a climate of tolerance.

c) The Government will encourage the mass media (both public and private media) to adopt a code of ethics that prevents the spread of intolerance and monitored by an Ethics Adviser to the press.


Excellent” stauudi is prepared: the auspices of the Council of tolerance and tolerance sub group of experts: Yoram Dinstein (Chairman), Ugo Genesio, Rein Mȕllerson (NB Africa), Daniel Thȕrer and Rȕdiger Wolfrum.

This “brilliant” Soviets directive was developed in 2009-2014, right now it is the time to start more decisively implemented. Perhaps many people will now also understand why our mainstream politicians and -meedia is precisely such as they are, after all, seek a special fervor to Brussels mõtelmata be pleasing to his people, and other things. Immigrant major offensive in 2015, this ardor somewhat cooled down already due to the conflict, but still …

Check out the full text of the statute in English here:11_revframework_statute_en-1

Translated by Triin van Doorslaer.

BBC: The Third World War – a look through the keyhole.

Третья мировая: две новости, хорошая и не очень

Special topic Southeast Summaries militia Former USSR Military conflicts Your news
The strength in the truth “Analytics information view” the BBC: World War III – a look through the keyhole
BBC: The Third World War – a look through the keyhole
Analyst opinion data
02.08.2016 03:54
BBC: The Third World War – a look through the keyhole

I would like to thank the British broadcaster BBC on behalf of all Russian citizens and citizens of the Baltic states, for helpful tips and visual footage demonstrated in their film “The Third World War – a view from a staff room” – as himself have to lead when it is absolutely them there pressed ethnographic order enforcers west in these countries. At the practical value of the film actually ends. Most of the meeting of the “headquarters” for the salvation of the Anglo-Saxon world order, at times reminiscent of the ward residents home for the elderly, it is impossible to watch without a smile.

And now seriously. Authors telefilm desperately lost between the propaganda genre loyalty paragraph 5 of NATO and the real exchange blows on the territories of the two nuclear superpowers. There is a vain attempt to this group pull the ears and the UK. But she, with all due respect, does a nuclear superpower is not drawn. She does not have the capacity, which would compete with the US and Russia on this issue on an equal footing.

In fact, nuclear war is not as easy to start as it seems. But even if it starts it will be by no means fatal to the whole of humanity as predicting many skeptics. Russia, with its expanses of war will transfer much easier than the US, but Europe has a chance to move her not at all. A number of experts (both in the West and in Russia) have described in detail the various scenarios possible conflict between NATO and Russia. To summarize their essence with regard to the bottom line we get the following:
1. Start a war with a nuclear exchange in the United States and Russia to each other no one in their right mind would. And not to sound too.
2. Nuclear strikes (tactical) depending on the current military and political situation will be applied only on the third – the non-nuclear countries.

3. Conflict can start with the use of conventional weapons on the territory of third countries. And according to most forecasts and it is likely to be limited to the territories of these countries. Skopje no one on the Russian attack will not be exact. Why do it, say France, Italy, Greece or Germany? These countries are not going to touch anybody, why should they attack first if they are guaranteed to lose after all. In France in the military doctrine even says that it can use nuclear weapons only if there is a direct threat to its territorial integrity, IE, the enemy rushed into the depths of its territory. Russia has no such plans, and has never been (not to be confused with partiality plans in the USSR). Therefore, it is not clear who still might want to launch missiles with nuclear warheads on the Russian territory and under what circumstances.

In the west give in vain euphoria and think – as now we all hit Russia and let her Feeds on the eyelid. Unfortunately, as history shows, the country die in wars, as the people in your life – alone. Therefore, there is still easily make out on the shelves.

Who can actually theoretically hit the Russian nuclear weapons? This is – the US, UK, France. All!
About France, we have already said, it will hit only if Russia decides to bang her or nuclear weapons Russian ground troops will leave France on the border with the intention of it or go cross. But both options utopia. Prior to that, France will not risk their complete destruction.

UK – it has a very limited number of missiles with nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. In addition to the tiny UK to get involved in an exchange of blows with Russian nuclear weapons is like death. If Russian spitting radioactive dust from the teeth will only become angrier, the British simply will not be on their island. Therefore, the striped beetle least of all interested in direct conflict with Russia.

Well, there is the United States. The US goal to weaken Russia (they understand that you can not destroy it completely), but it would not hurt himself. In direct nuclear exchange would have to suffer, and very strong, stronger than the Russian. Hopes on frivolous Washington selfless sacrifice for the sake of a mythical democracy is not exactly in the Baltic mills. Here in the first place will not promote the primacy of the image of a fighter with a “despot” Putin and “revanchist” Russia, as more prosaic desire for self-preservation.

Therefore, as the majority of military experts, everything is reduced to the war on the territory of third countries, not excluding the use of tactical nuclear weapons there. And in such a war the Americans will beat on the territory of its allies, potentially exhaust Russia, massaging and much more carefully than the Russian Armed Forces. Recall the famous bombing of Dresden, the waste in the zone of influence of the Soviet Union. Baltic countries, Poland, Romania – Russia having strategic advantages in the European theater of operations can take control and conventional arms. But, after this, these areas may well be subject to a massive US attack, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. After all, if you choose between the lives of people in these countries and a desire to harm Russia’s position in Europe “pragmatists” always choose the second in Washington.





German media: Following the Schengen and the euro may disappear

The German government reigns despondency, and the length of the influx of refugees could lead to the restoration of the permanent control of the borders of the EU, writes the German media. And after Schengen may have to bury the euro, journalists said.

Немецкие СМИ: Вслед за Шенгеном может исчезнуть и евро

This year may prove to be one of the most important for the future of the EU and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the prospect is not encouraging. This writes Der Spiegel.

“Germany and its chancellor Angela Merkel, facing the biggest challenge after the collapse of the Eastern bloc”, – quotes RIA Novosti article.

As noted, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the long list of unsolved problems add new, and warned of a “crisis of confidence” in Europe. Relations within the EU is increasingly aggravated by the influx of refugees.

Other countries, including France and Italy, made it clear that the migratory crisis – this is a problem in Germany, says the author.

In addition, there is the question of Turkey, which, according to the EU, should play a key role in reducing the number of refugees. To do this, Ankara should receive EU € 3 billion, but the decision met with protests in Italy. Vice-Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, he did not rule out that in the extreme case of Berlin will have to deal with the problem on their own.

The fate of the Schengen area and the euro.

The German government prevails “more disheartening than optimism,” is reflected in the article. There are fears that a further influx of refugees would lead to the restoration of the permanent control of the borders of the EU. If in the near future will ensure a reliable control of the external borders of the block, barriers like dominoes will fall anywhere from the south to the north.”
According to Der Spiegel, in this case, will have to bury the Schengen system, and with it, perhaps, Europe and other achievements. Thus, according to Juncker, without Schengen makes no sense and the euro.

Ultimatum of Bavaria and the Austrian border control.

Recall January 16, Prime Minister of Bavaria and head of the ruling in the Federal Republic of Germany in the coalition party “Christian Social Union” Horst Seehofer has put forward an ultimatum to Chancellor Angela Merkel, if in two weeks will not be provided with the order on the German border, he will file a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court Germany.

On the eve of Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann said that the authorities have started to enhanced scrutiny of entering the country temporarily thereby limiting the Schengen agreement.

According to Faymann, Austria would be “in the same way as Germany, hard to control borders and expel the refugees”. He stressed that the refugees are not sent on to Germany, from that moment will not be let in Austria.

He said that on the border necessarily need to have an identity card. “If the EU does not, it does not protect the external borders under the Schengen issue as such. Then each country must control its national borders, “- criticized the EU Faymann.




Americans are thinking the exclusion of Latvia from NATO !

Американцы задумались об исключении Латвии из НАТО

On the pages of Forbes magazine was publicly recognized as “meaningless” stay the Baltics into NATO. From the membership of the Baltic countries in NATO greatly affected the security of the United States: as a result of their activities in NATO there is a threat of a nuclear war with Russia because of that damn America. For the Baltic elites, such statements from the ocean – a reminder that the American owners of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – emergency ballast, which the United States, if necessary, easily be thrown overboard.

In one of the most famous and influential business media world – the American financial and economic magazine Forbes – earlier this month published “software” analytical article “Why America is a member of NATO?”, To question the appropriateness of the existence of the alliance, which does not guarantee the security of the United States but only puts this safety compromised.

The main idea of ​​the article – taking in new members, who are often weak, worthless and incapable of self-defense of the country, the Alliance forces the Americans to take custody of these new pitiful allies.

It is Washington only a headache, because it makes him get involved in all sorts of regional conflicts on the side of the countries that do not provide the security of the United States.

Countries that America in general, and do not need.

NATO expansion has long been turned into an end in itself – in practice, this expansion does not have any sense for Americans, not in the national interest of the United States, and eventually creates for the Pentagon to the State Department issues.

“Add to Montenegro – it’s like to get one more mindless friend in Facebook», – begins his article staffer Doug Forbes Bendou.

“The presidents and legislators continue to provide guarantees for the security of money and the lives of American citizens to foreign countries, and it happens even when – as is the case with Montenegro, when they have absolutely no value to the security of the United States,” – writes Forbes.

Business publication exposes the ruthless criticism of the policy of recruiting NATO with caustic sarcasm criticizing the principle of “expansion for expansion,” in which America is required, for example, carry the alliance commitments to Turkey – a “friend-enemy” of the United States, where the government is Islamist Erdogan, criticized furiously in his speeches “decadent West” and “American imperialism”, but once running for help to the Allies after they provoked the conflict with Russia.

However, a much more vivid example of useless and pathetic allies that America hoisted on his shoulders and is now forced to defend them, even though they do not need her or Europe – is the Baltic countries, with merciless candor named Forbes «helpless nations.”

“The expansion at the expense of the Baltic States turned a colossal mistake, which resulted in NATO became helpless nation in defense are not interested the rest of Europe, the countries that have no geopolitical significance to America, however, involved in the acute controversy with Russia, – says the American edition. – If there is something bad, then America with minimal support from the European “allies” – they are likely to seek refuge in Brussels – will have, apparently, have to deal with having a nuclear weapons Russia over the disputed issues of greater interest to Moscow than to Washington. ”

“Security of the United States significantly affected by the addition of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania”, – concludes Forbes, and on the basis of this conclusion, urging people not to repeat the Baltic “colossal mistake” in the “Eastern Partnership”, taking in Georgia and Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that Forbes said not a word about the “imperial ambitions” or “aggressive neighborhood” – the conflict between Russia and the Baltic States there is an objective, but the cause of his stated “heated debate” between Moscow and the Baltic countries.

Who this policy is – a rhetorical question, given that the adoption of the latest Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (2013), in which the Baltic states did not say a word, legally approved diplomatic line in Moscow against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is ignoring the whole Trinity.

Contemptuous silence – is a universal Russian official response to calls to its international isolation, the comparison with the Third Reich and female hysteria about the “terrorist state.”

Only a few months later, without any apparent connection with these public attacks, suddenly found themselves banned Latvian sprats, came under embargo “milk” and Russian transit redirected to the Baltic ports in Russia.

So the conflict between Russia and the Baltic states to blame Baltic states – says a leading US business publication, and by appealing to the most holy – to the “life of American citizens” – asks the question: why America must expose themselves to the threat of nuclear war with Russia because of the verbal incontinence Dalia Grybauskaite and Edgar Rinkevich?

Namely this Baltic Allies eventually from her and need: not a week goes by that of Vilnius did not hear the next call for increased US presence in the region, including the military presence.

For the Baltic States, and can be no question that they are fighting for themselves: no, we are small, responsible for our words about a “new Mordor” have allies.

Allies must do: they have to increase the presence of NATO in the region, the Baltic countries send in their military contingents, put them overland NATO base, going for it on a direct conflict with Russia.

This behavior, by the way, contrary to the bedrock of the Anglo-Saxon culture, and Americans are taught from birth that count in life only for themselves, responsible for his words and be able to stand up for themselves, can only cause disgust.
This aversion to read the publication Forbes between the lines, this disgust and question why the United States allies in the “helpless nation”?
“In the end, since the end of World War II, it passed 70 years. GDP and population of the European Union more than the corresponding figures in America, and much more than in Russia. Is it not time for the rich friends of Washington begin to defend themselves yourself? “- Angrily writes American magazine, noting that because of its craven allies, the White House continues to” risk the lives of its citizens, because Europe does not want to worry about is to have a sufficient number of men and women in uniform. ”
For Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia publication Forbes – a reminder that the Baltic Washington – emergency ballast is that the United States, if necessary, easily be thrown overboard, which is not for their value, and that Americans just do not go to war.
Article Forbes – is not just an article, because I Forbes – is not just a business magazine.
Forbes – is one of the mouthpieces of Wall street, this “wall newspaper” the first economy in the world, a voice that says business and political elite of the United States.
Forbes said its valuable than quantity, and quality of the audience about the “best workers” (rating of the richest people in the world) and the problems in the super-corporation called the USA.
Publication of the miserable, useless, and threaten the security of US allies in NATO could not appear in the media like nothing.
The American establishment realized the situation with “helpless nations” as a problem, concluded that no value Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to the United States do not represent, and publicly made it clear that, if necessary, Washington will hand over the Baltic states.

Czech Social Services released a brochure for Ukrainian prostitutes !!!

Czech social services prepared for Ukrainian prostitutes illegal pamphlets memo “Welcome to the Czech Republic.” The booklet in graphic form played with typical situations in the life of a prostitute, her hardships and adversities, problems communicating with colleagues (other prostitutes), leadership (pimps) customers.
The comic young Ukrainian woman arrives in the Czech Republic illegally and take up employment in the service sector. Her colleagues help her integration of adaptation into Czech society. But as you know, European civilization maintains a high level of medical care and, therefore, the girl from the former Soviet Union need to learn how to avoid sexually transmitted diseases and undergo regular medical examinations.

Чешская брошюра для нелегальных украинских проституток


The booklet is reviewed and a number of interesting techniques from the arsenal of experienced prostitutes for example, imperceptible to the customer putting on a condom.

My boss says I should do what customers want. But sometimes I do not want to. Here in Bohemia and Moravia there are a lot of clubs. If you are someone will be forced to do something you do not want find yourself another club or go on the street he advises her friend prostitutes.

The booklet clearly shows, and the most common sexually transmitted diseases, their symptoms in men and women.

The world is on a knife-edge, and the West can not be saved.

In a column for the popular socio-political publications Opednews “the father of ReaganomicsPaul Craig Roberts said – the world will survive only if Russia and China will no longer hold on to the hollow shell of Western civilization.”

Мир находится на лезвии ножа, и Запад уже не спасти

“Before the West began to spread democracy abroad, maybe he should have left her a little for themselves. The US is an oligarchy in which the government is accountable to the six powerful group of private interests. In Europe, governments are accountable to the EU, Washington and private bankers, but not in front of their nations “- wrote a famous writer and economist.

In his view, the United States to impose “democracy” is not a value in itself, but a cover for the aggressive policy of the Western elites governing their countries and intend to continue to do so for their own benefit.

“As far as I can tell, not only democracy left the Western world, but also compassion, empathy for others, morality, honesty, self-respect, respect for truth, justice, loyalty. Western civilization has turned into a hollow shell. It is nothing left except violence , greed, coercion, “- says the former assistant to the president of the USA.

“When I read, hopefully, wrong reports that Russian President Putin wants to be a partner of the West, I wonder why such a powerful country, returning to the light from the darkness, wants to be a partner of Satan. Maybe Putin is acting in the interest of humanity, seeking to defuse a dangerous situation created by Washington and its NATO puppets personal “, – says sincerely Roberts.

“The Western world is on its last legs. Unemployment is a horror for the European and American young people, especially the educated. The young American, moved the burden of student debt, offer the Internet” sponsors “sex for financial support”, – he said.

“The mentality of Wall Street – unlimited greed – picked up in the life of Americans, and now greed is exported to Europe, which today as the United States is a vacant lot opportunities for young people. Greece sacrificed banksters, Spain, Italy and Portugal are waiting in the wings” – shares eksprert. “Instead of independent European countries strengthens the fascist centralization of power. In recent years we have witnessed how banksters, acting through the EU can appoint a supposedly democratic government in Greece and Italy,” – he is going through.

“In the western world is restored aristocracy of wealth. If Russia and China to join the” Partnership “, that billions of people will be managed by a handful of mega-rich elite. The world is on a knife edge. The West does not save,” – concludes Roberts.

“Russia and China could follow after him, as they have suffered from the tyranny and look to the west on the road to freedom and independence. But Western paths lead to the” domination, exploitation and pillage of the peoples of the world “, – he quotes, asking” Will Russia and China to participate in the robbery and they will resist him firmly defending the interests of humanity? “

In Europe, 20 000 militants invaded ISIS as refugees

В Европу вторглись 20 тысяч боевиков ИГИЛ под видом беженцев

Lebanese minister says that in Europe under the guise of refugees infiltrated more than 20 thousand militants “Islamic state.” They intend to move the fighting into the EU.

Lebanese Education Minister Elias Bou Saab (Elias Bou Saab) stated that among the 1.1 million refugees who have flooded Europe, tens of thousands of fighters hiding group “Islamic State” (banned in Russia). According to him, about one fiftieth refugee is a member of a terrorist organization. This Lebanese warned British Prime Minister David Cameron during his visit to Lebanon.
Saab recognized that specific data on the number of terrorists among the refugees did not have, but the “gut feeling” tells him that this is what happens. It is concerned that the Islamists used the desperate situation of the refugees for their own purposes.

“The sixth sense tells us that LIH conducting an operation to penetrate into Europe and other regions. We assume (the refugees” – approx. Ed.), Only two percent of the radicals. But this is more than enough – said Saab, reports The Daily Express.

He noted that refugees in Europe penetrate trained militant groups that even outwardly distinguished from the general flow of migrants. In addition, Islamists recruit fighters among the refugees.

Earlier, Pope Francis also warned that with the flood of refugees to Europe terrorists. In an interview with the Portuguese Radio Renascenca, the pope acknowledged that one of the goals of the Islamists could be Vatican.

In recent months, Europe is faced with a huge influx of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East. Most of them are fleeing from war and mass terror unleashed by the rebels “Islamic state” in the territories under their control.

The situation threatens to spiral out of control. EU countries argue about who and how much should accept refugees, while those thousands of illegally crossing the border. Experts warn that a migration crisis could turn into a catastrophe and the collapse of Europe. This was stated, inter alia, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In Europe were heard talk about the revision of the Schengen Agreement and calls to abandon the free movement of citizens.

To curb the flow of migrants, some countries used troops. Hungary is building a wall on the border with Serbia. Denmark at the time to stop rail link with Germany. In Germany itself, clashes between opponents of mass migration and anti-fascists. The radicals set fire to shelters for refugees.

Against this background, more often heard the warnings about the penetration of terrorist groups on the territory of European states. British counterintelligence summer warned that the militants “Islamic state” are preparing for a major terrorist attack in Europe, including the use of bombs quadrocopters. Intelligence agencies claim that the leaders of the IG obsessed major terrorist attack that would have rivaled the attacks of 11 September 2001 at the Twin Towers in New York City.

Published on 09/15/2015 at 15:46

Run a Ukrainian! Run!

Беги, украинец! Беги!

Let’s go back a few years ago and remember how elegantly global political elite was prepared to overcome the impending second wave of global economic crisis. The scheme was a beautiful and beneficial: the US soft “compressed” to the level of the owner of North and Central America and, in exchange, the world harness (literally, financially) in the process of ensuring a “soft landing” for the US economy. The most important marker of this scenario, in addition to the famous Obama’s “tell Vladimir that after the election, I will be more flexible,” was officially agreed to give the United States control over the rest of the world through the IMF’s refusal to “blocking stake” shares. In many conflict areas have been made compromises: the Americans, to the great joy of China cut its financial support for African politicians and Yanukovych regime invested “special purse” of the Democratic Party of the United States, Mark Mobius. Peace, for the first time in its history, was a more or less organized and bloodless transfer of leadership from one global hegemon in the hands of supporters of a multipolar world. And then everything collapsed.


I’m afraid we’ll never know the details of the invisible revolution in the American elite, which occurred about two years ago. From the visible effects need to emphasize the following: there was a “bow” between the most radical democracy (the so-called “Clinton clan”, to which he belongs and Joe Biden) and the most radical Republicans, ie neocons and “tea party.” Because of Obama’s failed American Gorbachev, and the blessing that has given Obama the presidential election last of the Kennedy clan turned out rather familial curse. As a result, instead of the supporters of the “soft landing”, some of the key points in the American “political MCC” captured supporters of the war to the end, not necessarily victorious, but Obama and what was left of his team may engage in partisan except that, the benefit of some control over economic bloc they still have.


In the new context, the US is trying to implement two plans:

1. Plan a minimum – to rob Europe via the so-called “free trade agreement” (see. Article “We need to Berlin, not Kiev” – http://politrussia.com/world/nam-nuzhen-berlin-779/) and the rest of the world – ignite.

2. Plan a maximum – to rob Europe, set fire to the whole world, to seize power in Russia and to use it as a battering ram against China with a mandatory nuclear war between the two major geopolitical enemies of the United States. And you thought nothing Nemtsov regularly wrote articles that the main enemy of Russia – this is China?

The implementation of these plans Ukraine should fulfill the role of a tool that forever separates the EU from Russia and bury any hope for a “Continental union” between Berlin and Moscow – the eternal fear of Anglo-Saxon civilization. Everything else – the secondary, though pleasant for US bonuses.

Washington’s main problem – a terrible time trouble. Obama negotiated the surrender hegemony not a good life, and also not a good life Americans had to rush to Maidan. They do not have even a few years, to how to play all the games in which they got involved; the economy may fall into a spin at any time.

In terms of implementation of the strategic objectives of the operation in Ukraine failed. If nekononov and Clinton in Washington left at least ten years, it would be a success, but they need a blitzkrieg, and blitzkrieg failed, and most likely will not happen. Despite the enormous pressure and attempts to play scheme “Take us to our economy, and we will protect you from the terrible Russian, who captured the Crimea and is about to take over Kiev ‘Europeans do not want to sign a contract TTIP and destroy its economic elite for the benefit of the United States. Worse, even an embargo on Russian energy could not push. About the seizure of power in Moscow, the Americans still dream, but the chances of them – a little bit, and the clock is ticking and ticking all monotonously counting time before the US economic collapse.

Moscow understands and acts in the wheel logic, “We need a Berlin”, despite the heart-rending cries guard patriots who like to wave a sword and help to ensure that the third time in a hundred years, Russia and Europe clashed in a battle that would benefit only the United States (not tired, huh?)

Highly recommended to see a fragment of the sign from a recent interview with Sergei Lavrov, which clearly explains why Moscow alliance with Germany: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=gJTKN0–PpE#t=2633 (beginning of the frame – 43: 40)

The bottom line: we want to “shake up” the European Union so that it began to actively defend their own interests. Not the fact that the work, but work on it – it is necessary. Even just holding the EU from becoming a “food” for the US economy will be enormous victory, which will not allow the United States to extend its existence due to the European economy, as well as the US extended its existence for two decades due to the plunder of the USSR.

The situation is slowly beginning to level off, and the recent summit Ukraine – EU, was the best proof of that.

Let’s look at the specifics:

1. Has the American radicals to make EU support Ukraine cost? No it failed. For a minimal support of the Ukrainian economy needs tens of billions of euros. They are not and never will. This way, the question of the complete submission of Europe. For a complete subordination? If it was full, the money would be allocated in the last year. No money.

2. Were you able to get tougher sanctions against Russia? No it failed.

Total defeat of Ukraine.

To complete the picture, it is desirable to read about how the Financial Times complains about the behavior of the German and French diplomats who “put pressure on Ukraine,” and rewritten beyond recognition the final document of the summit, which apparently was made in the State Department: http://lenta.ru/news/2015 / 04/27 / ft /

Moreover, moving from the language of diplomacy, the passage:

“Germany and its key European partners put pressure on Ukraine in order to accelerate the implementation of the Minsk Agreement, fearing that Russia will use procrastination to” justify the renewal of aggression “,” should be read as “The Germans and the French said: dear Ukrainians, or you merge in an amicable or we turn away and Putin will do something bad. ”

Against this backdrop, statements by the head of the Office of Trade Policy at the Ministry of Economic Development of Italy’s Federica Ayhberga looks particularly interesting:

“Italy in February is clear and makes it clear that the Council of Ministers will not vote for the extension of sanctions. We believe in Russia, in a prosperous country and a reliable partner,” – said Ayhberg. (Http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/56613)

Before the victory in the European direction is still far, but reasons for optimism continue to appear, causing nervous American specialists:

“Some European countries have” Trojan horses “Russia:
The apparent inconsistency of some European countries in relation to the Ukrainian crisis is dictated by the national interests and the desire to conclude a lucrative contract with Russia in times of crisis, writes Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev in his article published by The New York Times. “(Http://vz.ru /news/2015/4/27/742498.html)

The position of Kiev and its American curators can not be called a winner. Obama continues to block arms supplies to Ukraine, the EU does not want to save the Ukrainian economy, and direct access to the American printing press in Washington radicals fortunately not, and besides, the machine is moribund – http://fritzmorgen.livejournal.com/723625.html .

Through the IMF was able to push the injection of 5 billion, however, getting the next tranche made dependent on the success of negotiations on restructuring the debt owed to private creditors. But the restructuring of bad, bad to the point that Madame Yaresko hysteria in the pages of the Western media and Western threatened default funds.


Apparently, Ms. Yaresko first encountered financiers for whom receiving a call from Clinton or Bush is not an indication to action. It will be interesting to observe their efforts to prevail upon Mark Mobius and his friends.

No money, no prospects, supply of American weapons are not. Washington “hawks” demand the resumption of hostilities, and the newspaper Le Monde (with reference to the environment Hollande) and European diplomats at the summit Ukraine – EU thick hint at the fact that even the “delay” of the Minsk performance agreements (which Kiev can not perform in principle) It leads to the fact that Kiev will lose significant territory. Unenviable prospects.

Total for Ukraine loom three possible scenarios:

1. If Europe is finally freed from the influence of the United States, the “Ukrainian problem” will be solved Russia are likely LDNR hands. The logic of “it is already possible!”

2. If Europe finally gets full control of the United States, the “Ukrainian problem” will be solved Russia are likely LDNR hands. The logic of “do not care anymore!”

3. If Kiev itself starts fighting the “Ukrainian problem” will be solved Russia are likely LDNR hands. Logic “asked for it!” with a view to use the situation to detach from the EU US

There is another option of continuing agony, but it can not last long. Sooner or later, one of these three options will occur. There are of course exotic scenarios like the all-out nuclear war, but now we do not consider them as in the case of their realization we still alive will be gone. And the text is still written to benefit the living.

Residents of Ukraine, regardless of their political preferences, it is understood that none of the above options is not intended for the territory of the former Ukrainian (net of Donetsk, Lugansk, and can be Odesa and Kharkiv, if you are very lucky) such surprises as the economic recovery and the expense of others restoring order.

No matter how things develop and how it will share or reformat Ukraine, Russia and the EU will not allocate resources to a radical stabilization of the situation in this area, in excess of what is necessary for the protection of the pipe (until 2019) and is armed or deactivation of nuclear power plants. All. In the rest – nothing or minimum wage. Hang around your neck 40 or even 20 million people tolerate their Wishlist and restore order does not want and can not nobody. Simply do not have the resources, and any attempt to “invest” in Ukraine scraps (minus the territories of which wrote above) does not find understanding in the political class, from regional elites and the population of Russia. The Europeans and say nothing.

Hence a simple conclusion for those who are still in the Ukraine: run. Run while you still can.







WHY BALTIC REMOVAL FROM RUSSIA CAUSED Russians have a sigh of relief?

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The answer to the question: Why the Baltic disconnection from Russia in the decay of the Soviet Union was a good sign for the Russians themselves and made them a sigh of relief, as if he were finally dropped from the back of a bag full of heavy stones …

Average wages Baltic workers and engineers from the late 40’s and up to the 90th was doubled, and almost three times as higher than in the Russian Federation and Belarus. A collective farmers and state farm workers the difference reaches three times. It is also significant that in the 40-60-ies in the Baltic kolkhoz passport is not seized, as in most Soviet republics.

Not Kaliningrad, namely, Latvian, Estonian and Lithuanian ports were the main western sea gate of the Soviet Union. Built back in the Soviet era ports continue to generate revenue Baltic countries.

In 70-80s to these ports were laid pipelines. Highways in the Baltic States were also at altitude. Their quality is ranked first in the USSR. Second place goes to Western Ukraine, the third – the South Caucasus. RSFSR was 12-13 th place.

We now turn to statistics. Let’s start with a comparison of capital investments. For example, the Lithuanian SSR received capital investment arable area of ​​1 hectare is 3.5 times more than these investments averaged for the Soviet Union. In 1987, the energy capacity for acreage in Lithuania were 2.2 times higher than in the RSFSR, in Latvia – 2.08, and in Estonia – 2.3 times. In this case, if someone believes that Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius were able to implement such energy supply agriculture at the expense of purely republican means that such a person is far from the truth. Union center was distributing fertilizers for agricultural land in such a way that the Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian SSR fell to 155 kg, 196 kg and 209 kg per hectare of arable 1 respectively, but had to settle for the RSFSR 32.9 kilograms per 1 ha of arable land.
Immediately after the end of the Great Patriotic War, melioration touched 80% of farmland Baltic. Comparable to land reclamation in the whole of the USSR. All-union measure does not go to any comparison with the Baltic. It is only about 7%. As they say, feel the difference. Since the Soviet “invaders” -melioratory “committed atrocities” in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, actually turning the land into a sample of fertility throughout Eastern Europe.
In 1988, the average Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians consumed per year of meat and meat products 84, 85 and 90 kg, respectively. On average, the Soviet Union, the figure was less than 64 kg. Consumption of milk and dairy products: Lithuania – 438 kg / person per year, Latvia – 471 kg / person per year, Estonia – 481 kg / person per year. The average for the USSR – 341 kg / person per year. In this case, the state budget of the USSR for the elimination of purchase and retail prices for the agricultural sector of the Baltic states is also allocated multimillion-dollar (for the – Soviet money) subsidies. It turns out that for the year the average Soviet citizen ate approximately 20-25 kg of meat and drink 100 liters of milk and dairy products is less than the average Baltic states.

Already in the mid-1950s, Latvia and Estonia became “standard” material well-being in the USSR. In 1961, the share of national income per inhabitant in Estonia was 720 rubles., In Latvia – 717 rubles. Given that the average all-union rate was 547 rubles (Russia – 598 rubles., Ukraine – 559, Lithuania – 489). But there was also the construction of housing, industrial, educational and medical institutions. Was developed processing industry. And all this for a considerable percentage of financed from the Union byudzheta.A here retail prices, electricity tariffs, transportation, rent and other prices in the Baltic (and Caucasus!) Republics were often two times lower than in the Russian Federation and Belarus.

All three “Baltic Sisters” received huge for these days and the cost of financial subsidies from Moscow. It should be noted that Moscow itself willingly went to the Baltic financial assistance, trying by all means to tighten its economy to the level of, for example, neighboring Finland. Like, a showcase of the USSR should look spectacular. And it looked the same.


Lethal Rubicon Obama !

Летальный Рубикон Обамы. Рискнут ли США поставить Порошенко тяжелое вооружение?

Whether to risk the US Poroshenko put heavy weapons?

As reported in the resurrection of the American edition of The New York Times, the Obama administration has never been closer to the realization of its long-standing threat. Washington could open for Ukraine “hot military-technical line.” We are talking about the supply of arms and all that can make Donbass capitulate.

However, on Monday, State Department spokesman Jen Psak clarified that the final decision on arms Ukraine yet. At the same time, she stressed that no options are not excluded.” On the question whether the supply of arms Kiev provoke indirect” US war with Russia, the speaker of the State Department said: “Nobody wants to” mediate “the war with Russia.”

Still surrounded Obama lacked unanimity on this issue. Since there was a danger to provoke an “arms race” in Ukraine within the framework of the so-called “Hybrid war”. In addition, it should be recognized that the supply of lethal military equipment, from the point of view of international law, may be regarded as interference in internal Ukrainian opposition. Crafty term “ATO”, invented by Kiev to not call a spade a spade, can hardly mislead international lawyers. Thus, the supply of weapons will be another step towards the escalation of tensions with the prospect of escalating “hybrid” war into a hot (between Russia and NATO under the auspices of the US). The first step in this direction has already been made a few days ago the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Stepan Poltorak confirmed the participation of foreign nationals in the fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In fairness, it‘s about as long as volunteers.

Chief lobbyist of Ukraine means of warfare acts chief of the armed forces of the US and NATO in Europe, General Philip Breedlove. Until recently, an active opponent of this idea was the Advisor to the President for National Security Affairs Susan Rice. However, according to the publication, it is ready to change their point of view. “The President of the United States has not yet decided on the supply of such lethal aid. However, after a series of serious setbacks that Ukrainian forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is considering new military aid, “says NYT. According to the newspaper, officials persuade Obama to send Kiev missiles, armored vehicles and radars worth $ 3 billion. A 2 February, a group of authoritative retirees represented by the former deputy head of the Pentagon Michele Flournoy, a former commander of NATO forces James Stavridis and the former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daldera provide justification to supply large quantities of weapons to Ukraine.

Prior to that put out the fire with gasoline in Ukraine, openly called only odious Senator McCain.

As evidence that the fatal Rubicon can be passed, advocates visit US Secretary of State John Kerry in Kiev, which will be held on February 5. In the Ukrainian capital, a senior official will arrive with an impressive backing band consisting of a Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff US Armed Forces General Martin Dempsey and assistant to the president for national security Susan Rice. According to the American edition of these policies declare the “openness to discuss the issue of granting Ukraine lethal aid.”

Recall still Washington supplied Ukraine so-called non-lethal weapons body armor, night vision devices, medical devices.

In a conversation with “SP” head of the analytical department at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Hramchihin questioned the assertion that the heavy weapons of the American or NATO production was supplied to the theater of military operations in the Donbass.

Another thing is that this may be a former Soviet technique, which is still standing armed with Eastern European countries that are members of NATO. Such as Poland or Romania. Say that somewhere in the combat zone was discovered NATO caliber projectile is absurd. The question is, what does it shoot if the Ukrainian Soviet artillery designed to gauge?

A small arms found in Donetsk airport, generally does not prove anything. As you know, in the US it may acquire private person in the store. Ukraine has got it, most likely, with mercenaries from private military companies.

“SP”: Why, despite the bellicose statements, to the question of the supply of heavy weapons Washington fits very carefully?

Obama is in a very difficult position. It strongly presses Congress. On the other hand, the president of the United States understands that the results can be counterproductive. Open delivery of heavy weapons would only worsen the situation in Ukraine. Because Russia will then announce that it is also in this respect no more holding back. As a result of the military situation in Kiev will become not better, but worse.

“SP”: The more that Western weapons still need to learn.

If we are talking about serious art, rather than on small arms from the Soviet relearn on US weapons systems is very difficult. Accordingly, in the Ukraine in large numbers have to bring trainers from the US. That is, it will take time to introduce new technology. But what if these instructors taken prisoner? In addition, virtually guaranteed that the technology will have shtatovskih militias. Obama probably guess what this means. But apparently, the policy is often stronger than common sense.

“SP”: What kind of weapon in the first place asked to Kiev security forces?

They need any advanced weapons. But no one will sell. A cheap and modern does not happen. Even Poland refused to hand over the Soviet technique on grant terms. The only thing that may be involved, it’s about anti-military complex. Air defense Kiev do not need because of a lack of volunteers aviation. As for private aviation, Canada last year offered 20 cars free F-18, but the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine refused. And rightly so. Because in the development of this technology will take several years. And the amount of money will be spent on maintenance. It’s old aircraft. So we’ll have to prepare not only pilots, but also technicians. Plus we have the means to counter militia aviation.

In Ukraine and Soviet aircraft problems. Why would she need the same old, besides import?

“SP”: – And what about small arms and mortars?

This stuff they themselves drown. The only thing missing is the anti-missile systems. This is the most obvious option. But again just a few days after the receipt of the samples will be in the militia, and there may be sent to Russia. I think our military and technical specialists are waiting with bated hope present in the form of, for example, the anti-missile system the US Army Javelin. Any country is very interested in obtaining samples coming from other countries, it helps to develop their own military-industrial complex.

“SP”: The militia set a new goal – to reach the borders of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and only from the position of a new line of contact to negotiate with Kiev. Ukraine satisfied with this option, or she prepares forces to counterattack?

I’m back in September, when they were entered into the Minsk Agreement, said that sooner or later a truce go into another full-scale war. Because both sides clearly “nedovoevali” and are confident that they have “stolen victory”. Right now they are dovoevyvat” as long as the parties are against the limit of their capabilities: human, moral, organizational, financial. Wars end only if at least one of the parties can not fight any more. Then she capitulates. If both can not, then they agree on the world. When this happens, then the war will end.

America does not go to the direct supply of weapons to Ukraine, as in this case Russia will get the moral right to mirror the action in response, said military analyst Michael Tymoshenko.

In fact, Ukraine, and without enough military equipment. As they say, a 20-year war without stopping. You just need to put in fighting shape his technique where wiring rotted where seals sagged. It is clear that the tanks, BPM, and so on for a long time stood on the storage bases, nobody renovate.

Aviation is the same story. In his time in Ukraine tank was almost more than we do (3000 pieces). Kharkov Plant. Malyshev produced T-64, produces new BMP.

“SP”: Why Kiev authorities are literally begging the US weapons. What are they missing?

– First of all mind. There’s no one to command. At all levels, starting with the sergeant. And recruits do not want to fight. Why would they put their heads with fools? Just look how people run from mobilization. How much equipment is not supplied, will still fight nobody.

Editor in chief of National Defense Igor Korotchenko not agree with the thesis that the Ukrainian army did not need military equipment.

To make political decisions deliver or not, will be Obama. Legal barriers no longer exist. Congress in December adopted the “Act on the support of Ukraine“, which involves any help until the supply of lethal weapons.

“SP”: This will be enough to break the resistance of the militias?

Immediately say, Ukraine will not deliver US weapons. And above all, of the former Warsaw Pact countries that are now included in NATO. That is, it will not be a new Soviet equipment. Hence, the sum of the US can finance the delivery or Poland or Hungary or the Czech Republic. It is possible that will be used barter schemes. That is, instead of the past in Ukraine Soviet weapons, these countries will receive US.

In addition, Washington can begin deliveries Kiev separate party special weapons, night vision devices, optics, military, communications, navigation, sniper weapons, radar to pinpoint the location of the artillery batteries. The main thing is the anti-tank weapons. Not to mention clothing, gear, body armor. Ukraine can also get American “Hummer”, based on which is mounted firearms.

“SP” a kind of modern “carts” during the Civil War, the beginning of XX century.

This is a much more serious armored vehicle.

“SP”: All of the above will change the balance of forces?

Of course. Because Ukraine will have quite a significant military arsenal, allowing it to better level to conduct military operations. In these circumstances, Russia, of course, will be forced to react. Both politically and practically. If Americans really begin large-scale arms supplies to Ukraine, it unleashes a Russian arms for similar actions against the armies of the DNI and the LC.
Already Ukrainian General Staff provides lists of the necessary equipment in the office of the US military attaché in Kiev. That is, all formal requests are made. It now remains the last word for Barack Obama, his hands are completely untied.


Nightmare Ukrainian military units separate Chechen battalion “Death” !

Ночной кошмар украинских силовиков отдельный чеченский батальон "Смерть"

In Forces militia formed Hotel “Chechen battalion“, which is involved in the confrontation with the Ukrainian troops. On the emergence of a new military force in the Donbass became known in early December, before the volunteers from Chechnya fought in the militia groups and did not have a consolidated Battalion, said “military informant.”

In the DNI does not hide the presence in their ranks of the Chechen battalion “Death” with the numerical composition of about 300 people who have a combat experience from 10 to 20 years.”

Officially, it is noted that all Chechens fighting in the Donbass “volunteers” and have come here to catch militants Isa Munayev, insulted Ramzan Kadyrov and fights with his Chechen detachment on the side of Ukrainian security forces against the militia of New Russia.

It is worth noting that Chechen volunteers and had been involved in clashes with security forces and Ukrainian gained fame as the most formidable opponent. Ukrainian Army is experiencing no fear of fake soldiers from Chechnya in view of their high expertise and zeal to fight. According to Ukrainian media, most cases of attacks on the Ukrainian position were organized just came from Chechnya.

In turn, in the Russian media reported that the Ukrainian security services in conjunction with the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine plans to elimination of the three members of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine: Yuri Birch, Andrew and Igor Levus Mosiychuk who publicly supported the terrorists involved in the death of people in Grozny, December 4, 2014 year and called for assistance such bandit raids.

This information, according to the deputy of the State Duma Shamsayev Saraliev comes from different sources close to the Ukrainian security officials. According to the MP, responsible for the death of politicians Kiev impose on Russia, which will be the logical continuation of the anti-Russian policy, which is carried out in recent years in Ukraine.

  чеченский батальон Смерть (с) Reuters

  чеченский батальон Смерть (с) Reuters

  чеченский батальон Смерть (с) Reuters


The Ukrainian government is preparing a social collapse !

Postmaydannyh dozen months brought a lot of hardship to the Ukrainian people, starting with the Civil War and ending with the fall in living standards, devaluation of hryvnia, wage cuts, rising unemployment, prices and the cost of utilities. But it seems that the difficulties and troubles are only beginning Ukrainians, because they have to live in an open regulation of the International Monetary Fund policies of the government of Ukraine. In the period from 9 to 18 December in Kiev will work his mission. As the head of the Fund in Ukraine Jerome Your mission will begin debate on policy with the Ukrainian authorities in the context of Fund-supported economic reform program.” Cabinet prepared for the meeting.

* * *

Appointing a member of the government ministers foreigners Kiev went even further Georgia and the Baltic countries, known for their voluntary status of the colonies of the West. If these countries to the higher public authorities were only representatives of the title, as they say they have, nation, though with foreign citizenship, among Kiev “Varyag” Ukrainian only one widely publicized successful businesswomanN.Yaresko, became minister Finance of Ukraine. The official reason invitation of foreign ministers was the fight against corruption and reform, supposedly brings Ukraine closer to European standards.

What is the nature of these reforms, it is clear from the proposals for budget cuts that are made in the Cabinet N.Yaresko. Exactly how and warned at the time the opponentsEuromaidan European integration will be at the expense of ordinary citizens of Ukraine. First of all, the Ukrainians expect the abolition of the constitutional provisions on free education and healthcare, as well as reducing the period of compulsory education for children in schools from 11 to 9 years. Finance Minister referred to the European experience, where compulsory education lasts up to 15-16 years. The benefit is not applied experience of Georgia, where secondary education ends at 12 years. Canceled and regulations prohibiting reduce the number of medical and educational institutions, as well as provisions for mandatory budget financing of health and education in the amount of not less than 10% of national income. But the food in hospitals and schools will be paid, as well as training in children’s and youth sports schools.

Students will be deprived of scholarships and the right to free travel with students and teaching staff, and teachers at the same time expects an increase in load. Will be eliminated indexation scholarships, which according to the new requirements of the Ministry of Finance will receive only persons with disabilities and students from low-income families, and the education sector will lose additional payments for scientific degrees and titles.

A lot of surprises awaits Chernobyl. The government plans to cancel the zone of increased radiation monitoring. Themselves as people affected by the Chernobyl disaster, will lose the right to spa treatment, increased scholarships, compensation and benefits, related to category 4, the monthly payments to families with children, extra pay for work in contaminated areas and compensation for lost property.

Abolish and payment deportees financial assistance for the completion of individual construction, increasing seniority for the purpose of pensions, preferential drug supply and compensation value lost due to the deportation of buildings and other property. This concerns, first of all, Crimean Tatars, who left the territory of Crimea, wishing to stay in Ukraine. Rewarded for showing patriotism, nothing to say.

Cease support of public organizations, and payments of cash rewards athletes halved.

* * *

Significant deterioration expects pensioners. Retirement age for women will be increased to 10 years for men for 5 years, and the experience necessary to obtain the retirement pension will increase by 7 years. When the permanent reduction of production and the fall of the economy, which entails a rise in unemployment, to get such experience would be very difficult. In order to “social justice” will freeze the size of the average wage for the calculation of pensions at the level of 2014 to pensions allowances to children of war will now be determined by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, while they themselves do not indexed pensions would be “to stabilize the economy of Ukraine.” Another unpleasant surprise. From now on pensions will be recalculated using the percentage of the amount listed in the Pension Fund contributions rather than from wages, which significantly reduce the amount of accrued pensions, because of inflation, pension contributions in the 1990s and 2010s – a “two huge difference “.

Not the fact that the existing pensions will remain even for those who are already receiving pension payments. In the quest to minimize the length of service and reduce the size of government pensions is studying “bestexperience of the Baltic states. The delegation of the Ministry of Social Policy and the Pension Fund visited Lithuania, where the parties discussed the possibility of social security pensions to count the people who pay the pension for the experience gained in Lithuania and Ukraine. This is a new principle of counting the Soviet time, according to which each state would have calculated the pension and paid to have it only for the acquired experience in it. In Lithuania, when calculating pensions in the first place is considered to be work experience since 1990, and the experience in the Soviet period is taken into account with a much lower ratio, because then the people working for the occupiers.” Given the rhetoric of the Kiev regime, a similar solution can accept and Kiev.

Pensioners will lose the right to free travel, as well as benefits for housing and communal services, the acquisition of solid fuel, gas and telecommunications services. Targeted financial assistance in these cases is provided only for 6 million. Poorest pensioners. Stops and the action of a state pilot project on the regulation of prices for medicines for the treatment of individuals with hypertension. Naturally, it is more likely to hit it on pensioners, depriving them of the possibility of acquiring at a low price of essential drugs.

* * *

However, the sick, as well as to give birth to children in the new “Europeanized” Ukraine can not be anyone. Payouts for sick leave will be reduced from 60-100% of the average wage up to 45-80%. Trimming payments for temporary incapacity, the Minister refers to the AmericanEuropean experience, according to which workers in France and Italy the first 20 days of illness receive 50% of salary, and in the following days, 70%, and Slovakia, for example, only 25% and 55% .

Planned reduction Insurance Fund of accidents and occupational diseases. From now on, the size of payments to victims at work or members of their families shall not exceed 100 times the minimum wage and receive compensation for moral damage is impossible.

IMF demands deprive the majority of single mothers the right to receive child support, and assistance for child birth will be given only with the material conditions of the family. Parents also have to forget about state funding rehabilitation of children in the camps, free children’s and youth schools, Christmas gifts. Themselves improving facilities and spa businesses are removed from the allowance.”

* * *

But that’s not all. Every Ukrainian waiting for a new tax system, the introduction of requirements which are annexed to the Association Agreement with the EU. Now, citizens will pay 30% of the purchase of expensive goods, if they can not prove the origin of income. Under the new law, which takes effect from 1 January 2015, any purchase of goods worth more than 10 times the minimum wage, ie, 12 810 UAH., Can be done only by bank transfer with a passport and an identification code. Tax authorities will get the right to charge the amount of the tax, as well as acquire the right to seize the property of physical persons and to bring the tax police for the document verification of income and expenditure of the Ukrainians.

Thus, the income tax rate unconfirmed far exceeds the amount of tax that is paid from the proceeds confirmed. Under the tax rate will fall to discriminatory and currency transfer people working abroad and remit money to their families. In addition to numerous opportunities to abuse and corruption, the negative effect of such “European” measures extended to sales in the car market, real estate, household appliances and other goods of high value, and so going through hard times. That, in turn, will lead to a reduction in income entrepreneurs and a further reduction in the tax base.

* * *

What consequences coup and Association Agreement with the EU will be exactly as it was known long before the call to enter the M.Nayema maidan. But Sweet propagandists deceived Ukrainians do not heed the many warnings. The collapse of the economic and social development there, as well as scattered protests. While scattered.

To cure the disease, it is necessary to understand its cause. And the reason is the thoughtless destruction of the economy in favor of the provisions of the colonial association agreement, with no prospect of joining the EU, as was repeatedly told by representatives of the European Union. The upcoming fight ruined anti-human henchmen reforms Foreign population should finally focus not on consequences, and causes.

What could be the scenario of war between NATO and Russia !

Каким может быть сценарий войны НАТО и России

The armed conflict between our country and NATO is possible in the near future, if the parties do not immediately begin to look for a compromise.

This was in an article in the Financial Times writes Professor of Conflict Resolution at George Mason University (USA) Dennis Sandole.

According to Sandole, permanent NATO’s eastward expansion and plans to include in the block Georgia and Ukraine, Russia put in an impossible position.

After the end of the Cold War, it seemed that a world war is no longer possible. But if in Moscow constantly talked about our love of peace, the foreign policy of the West has not changed significantly. NATO military bloc was not dissolved, while continuing to be involved in many armed conflicts in the world. As equal opposing forces in the world he did not exist, the Alliance was able to actually usurp the functions of the global arbiter.

Now that Russia is not as it was in the 1990s, and is actively pursuing its geopolitical interests, the West is doing everything to build a confrontation with our country. Often, even to their own detriment. So the script Sandole American professor does not look so fantastic.

But is our country for a major confrontation with the West, if it will not at the level of sanctions?

According to a leading expert of the Center for MilitaryPolitical Studies, Moscow State Institute Mikhail Alexandrov, the probability of a major war really big, but we will defend ourselves can:

Professor Sandole absolutely right: NATO policy has led to a sharp deterioration in relations of the Alliance and Russia. Block headed for the environment of our country, now poses an imminent threat to our security. The trend became clear at the time of “color” revolutions in Georgia, now the West is trying to take full control of Ukraine.

In fact, we are already seeing an escalation of the conflict. In Ukraine, the army comes, militias are trying to fight back. In the future, possible arrival of volunteers from Russia, launched an attack on Kiev and the capture of the capital. West will increase its assistance to Ukraine, Russia will have to intervene has its armed forces, to go to the borders of Ukraine and Transnistria.

There is already a NATO will depend on the Alliance to intervene or not. If he intervenes, there will be a large-scale war. The only thing he does not have the strength and resources for the war with Russia. The army, of course, numerous NATO, but it is scattered, not able to maintain consolidated hostilities in Europe is not enough heavy equipment, ammunition, poorly developed logistics.

Therefore, theoretically, Russia could easily get out to the Balkans, defeating Bulgaria and Romania. Together with Serbia would be to create an alliance and defeat Kosovo, Montenegro. In fact, we would take NATO in a semicircle. So we have a good opportunity.

Of course, NATO can build weapons, raise an army. But we will not sit idly by. We will carry out a partial mobilization, transfer troops from the Urals, where we have large stocks of weapons.

By the way, this is not NATO, they destroyed all the reserves. We in the Urals 10,000 tanks, it takes several months to bring them into fighting condition. We have a mobilization reserve, and it is not NATO. They will be able to create a million-strong army, and we quickly can deploy an army of two to three million.

Likely to be used tactical nuclear weapons. In aviation, the Alliance has an advantage because in front of us will be challenged to quickly destroy their airfields. To do this, it will be necessary to use tactical nuclear weapons, in particular, cruise missiles. We do not have a sufficient number of medium-range missiles, but there are missiles and sea-based aircraft capable of reaching anywhere in Europe.

This will start a war of attrition in the spirit of the First World War. Electronic systems will be put out of action, and without it will not be possible to use NATO precision weapons, but it is not so much the Alliance. NATO will have to fight conventional arms, and they know how to fight in the West is bad.

So it is not the fact that the victory will be on the side of the West. I think that NATO generals understand this and lately try not to flaunt their power.

Is NATO takes Russia into the environment without having sufficient power?

Who preference paramilitary method combining political violence with the actions of subversive groups. Essentially, most NATO war is not necessary. It may require us, if we will see that not cope with the situation. We just have to respond asymmetrically.

But NATO strategy political and paramilitary techniques to master the post-Soviet space, as is happening now in Ukraine. Then begin to destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus, the Volga region, blocking our trade routes and energy supplies.

That is, NATO expects to grueling conflict, which will lead to a gradual weakening of Russia, falling away from her territories and, finally, the disappearance of the country.

But we plan broke in Ukraine, going to the action. Unfortunately, we did not come to the borders of the former Soviet Union. Then NATO would not think about the development of the post-Soviet space, and about his own defense, creating bastions in Eastern Europe in the case of our invasion.

West is waging against us undeclared war, and our management wants to appear pious, talks about some partnership.

– It turns out that the success of the plans of the West in our indecision.

That’s right. In 2008, it was necessary to defeat Georgia demonstratively judge Saakashvili, a pro-Russian authorities to establish there. Then West would not venture to meddle in Ukraine. But everyone saw our hesitation, we were limited to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore, staged a coup in Ukraine, and again we are playing in debt.”

Some make payment to the division of Europe and the United States. But it is trying to do more, Stalin, Khrushchev, Gorbachev tried to maneuver with Germany. It is not necessary to us now for the tenth time to step on the same rake. But this tactic is pumped resources, rather than to act decisively.

Although we could now create problems Americans in the Middle East, around Saudi Arabia. And oil prices have soared again.

While Yanukovych was the legitimate president, the Ukrainian army would not defend the regime in Kiev. We could establish a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, but missed the point.

In the West, saying that Russia’s economy is only 2.5% of world GDP and, if desired, our country can crush economic measures very quickly.

It sounds ridiculous! Russia controls most of the world’s resources, has a vast territory, we have the highest nuclear capability. If you wish, we can destroy both Europe and the United States. Here Stalin had no such opportunities, and we are there.

As for the economy, the share of the West in the world economy is constantly decreasing, is now about one-third. That is, you can do without the West in general. At the time, the Soviet Union had only full trade relations with Afghanistan and Iran, and was able to survive. Now we have a partner in China, India and many other countries. The West was the last lever of influence on the rest of the state – control over finances. But talk about the calculations in national currencies within the BRICS.

– When a military confrontation important mindset people, their willingness to sacrifice something.

When Putin made the return of the Crimea, he had incredible support. This level of trust has been, perhaps, only to Alexander the Great, when he took to Paris, or Stalin, when he was taken to Berlin.

But then the speaker has been lost, and success in the international arena is not visible, the ruble is falling, the economy weakens. And this causes irritation. If we took all of Ukraine, the people would know for what to suffer. By the way, in the areas Novorossia huge industrial potential, excellent arable land.

Another problem – representatives of the “fifth column”. Here in Moscow introduce paid parking, unite schools and hospitals. This policy causes irritation citizens.

– Is the Western society at war with Russia?

The small states of Eastern Europe will not fight. Will fight the Germans and Anglo-Saxons, maybe they will be joined by the French. There are haters of Russia as Poland and the Baltic countries. Unfortunately, supporters of friendship with Russia in the West do not control. In Nazi Germany, too, was resistance, but it did not make the weather. All elite controlled Washington Regional Committee.”

The confrontation between Russia and NATO will be a catalyst for conflicts in other parts of the world?

– Of course. As soon as the war in Europe, China will take advantage of the situation and take Taiwan. North Korea is a blow to South Korea in order to unite the country. Iran is certainly a blow to Saudi Arabia. There will be a unique situation where all resources will be concentrated in Western Europe, and he will have no opportunity to influence the situation in other regions of the world. So will the full Kotovasiya.”

According to the vicepresident of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Konstantin Sokolov, the war between Russia and NATO is already underway, but it is taking place in an unusual form:

– In my opinion, the direction of the West to strike at Russia manifested obvious. We are talking only about the nature of war. The shape of the war written into the concept of US national security. We are talking about a “world civil war.”

We are now seeing a weakening of the ruble, the collapse of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia, the fall in oil prices. In fact, the fighting has already begun. Just no one will declare war on each other, there will be the front line.

For civil war characterized by a variety of groups that fight each other. There is no obvious external enemy, but will be at war with the power of the opposition. It’s just another technology war.

– War involves mutual blows. Will Russia be able to respond to the West?

I’m talking about the “world civil war“, and it will not withstand Russia and the West, and a variety of global social groups. For example, in Russia‘s oligarchs are patriots of our country? No, they are representatives of the force which attacked Russia, destroys its economy.

There are people, there are surrogates global financial groups. It is necessary to think in these categories. New tactics the establishment of power, which destroys the population of social transformations.

Russia can not defend themselves?

– Naturally, people must defend themselves. First of all, we need to defend the spiritual and moral level. We need to resist the influences that come to us from the West, to keep traditional values. Who in the world is Russia with its values of teamwork, but there were advancing on us the power of the “golden calf“.

But there will be armed conflicts.

Of course there will. But it will confront entities. Right now everyone is discussing how to deal with “Islamic state”. But at the same time unless some country declared war on the other? No, they do not fight each other. People are going to the proper religious or social ideas, not the state, and this is a sign of the Civil War.

We are making some effort to avoid being crushed in a global confrontation?

– Now save the military-industrial complex. But the system of national security is much more difficult. Need a systematic approach, which, alas, is no.

Is it possible to “hot” conflict on the territory of Russia?

Our opponents in September demonstrated their strength. When the majority of public opinion supported the Russian policy in the Crimea and Ukraine, Moscow came under people liberal slogans. It was a workout. Our enemies will be able to arrange in Moscow and “Maidan”, and other disorders.

But the problem is that the government itself creates discontent. Here I am forced to remove the car from the yard, paid parking is introduced, removed all the stalls in the capital in the shops become more expensive. In fact, I survive out of the house, brings me to the condition”. And even now, there is a mass layoff of small and medium-sized businesses. People have no choice but to go to rallies like.

Is there any chance that public opinion in the West would not support a war with us?

Any Bulgarian, regardless of skill level, it is clear that the management of Bulgaria’s “South Stream” is decided not in the national interest. Already it is clear that Europe’s elite is the representatives of the world of oligarchic structures, no democracy on the continent remained.

We must understand that our enemy is not the usual American or Englishman, and the owners of financial capital. This they decided to pit the nations together. World oligarchy should not feel safe. Here is a need to understand the people of Russia and the West.

Stop Frau Merkel !

Остановить фрау Меркель. Влиятельные немцы призвали канцлера Германии отказаться от антироссийского курса

Influential Germans called German Chancellor abandon anti-Russian policies.

Subject: Sanctions.

More than 60 influential European politicians and public figures signed a declaration entitled “A new war in Europe? Not in our name “, which was sent to the federal government of Germany, the members of the Bundestag and the largest media Germany. The authors call for treatment Berlin to take on an important mission and begin the process of detente in relations with Russia.

The declaration states that in 1990 the society had hoped that the confrontation of East and West came to an end, and soon established a “new European order of peace and security from Vancouver to Vladivostok“, “common European home”. But politicians quickly forgotten about the need to abandon war as a method of solving conflicts” and now in Europe, people are afraid again.

In the opinion of those who signed the appeal, and among them, the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, former German Interior Minister Otto Schily, the head of the Eastern Committee of German Economy Eckhard Cordes, cosmonaut Sigmund Jahn, Dutch film director Wim Wenders and others, now the West is trying to “oust Russia of Europe “, which is contrary to history and dangerous for the world. After all, “since the days of the Congress of Vienna in 1814, Russia is one of the fundamental European countries“, and “all those who tried to force change this state of affairs, suffered a bloody failure“, including Hitler’s Germany.

The authors of the declaration indicate that NATO’s eastward expansion without deepening the dialogue with Moscow understandably causes concerns Russia. “The need for security is a Russian legal and as serious as that of the Germans, Poles, Balts and Ukrainians,” – the authors write, and as an example of “aggressive expansion of the Westresult in an invitation to Ukraine and Georgia into NATO in 2008. Politicians and public figures have come to the conclusion that the West needs to properly assess the gravity of the situation and resume a constructive dialogue with Russia. They also encourage the media to comply with the duty of convincing unbiased coverage of events as they often demonize whole nations without understanding their history.

In recent years, the rhetoric of Germany, which was considered the main “evroadvokatom” Russia is becoming increasingly fierce and peremptory. Hear whether Angela Merkel‘s call to review their policies?

In Germany, the first week is a discussion about how to deal with Russia as productive sanctions, in which Germany takes a leading role – says a leading researcher at the Department for European Policy Studies IMEMO, Germanic Alexander Kokeyev. There is an opinion of the government, and we must bear in mind that this is the opinion of the two largest parties of Germany: CDU / CSU coalition with the Social Democrats (though the latter in favor of a softer policy toward Russia).

But there is a certain amount of pressure on the government from different circles. This declaration is presented, for example, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who was appointed to one of the leading positions in the company, which is close to “Gazprom”. His friendly relations with our President. Merkel does not support this so-called “friendship sauna.”

Was named Cordes, industry representatives. Big business in Germany, firms such as Siemens, Adidas, BMW, Daimler-Benz and many other sanctions are concerned, as they bring them substantial losses. The list is also present Shealy, representatives of “green” and just people who pay attention to the fact that the sanctions do not give the West in ideological terms. Russia, by contrast, is increasingly rallying around the president, in the country there are anti-Western sentiment, which only aggravated by the sanctions. Therefore, there are voices and there are letters.

“SP”: How big is the value of such appeals, is there a chance to be heard?

I think it’s important. Germany – a country with the most extensive connections with Russia, which she in general, does not want to break. Yes, government support sanctions. But it must be emphasized that both the government and Merkel, and especially Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier advocated that the dialogue with Russia will not tear, to continue to use all possible diplomatic means. They are opposed to squeeze Russia out of the negotiation process, but at the same time in favor of retaining the sanctions because, in their view, Russia has committed illegal acts.

But, again, there is an opposite point of view. Is there a US pressure? Of course there is. But I would not be so exaggerated. With all the pressure of Germany, along with France during the American invasion of Iraq refused to participate. Unfortunately, now is not the only pressure, but also that the interests and views of the Allies on the Euro-Atlantic bloc largely coincide. Of course, such treatment of the public, where there is a major political figures and representatives of big business to play a role in the fact that Germany tries to not only maintain but also expand the dialogue.

“SP”: – Can Germany and the West to compromise, for example, in the expansion of NATO to the East?

In principle, it is possible. After the Georgian-Ossetian war Berlin, for example, took the position that we should not rush and promise of Georgia‘s membership in NATO. And even today, leading to the policy of sanctions Germany clearly says that Russia needs to be explained: the West is not ready to accept Ukraine into NATO. Another thing that is meant to NATO, saying safeguards.

Very often recall a conversation Helmut Kohl and Mikhail Gorbachev, when Russia allegedly promised not to expand NATO to the East. I will say, as a political scientist: these promises do not exist. Kohl promised to make this request, Gorbachev said that NATO is its understanding. But NATO can not promise anyone anything. The Union is founded on the fact that if someone wants to be a member, the entry ban for relations with third countries, the Alliance can not. If the country will ask NATO membership will be a question on how she is ready for it. Georgia is not ready because it has an internal conflict. Ukraine certainly not ready, there are fights, it still considers its Crimea. On its accession to NATO in the foreseeable future, even out of the question.

“SP”: And in the future be?

In the process of NATO enlargement Russia’s interests must be taken into account. Initially, it was a requirement that the Alliance is not approaching our borders. But he approached and extended. Now the West clearly understands that Russia pressed and under pressure, and that Ukraine may take the unit. Therefore, in the West say they are not ready to join her. In this regard, it was Germany, not the US or weakened France, with all the complexities of the current relationship remains our main partner. Germany’s role in the world in recent years has increased very much. Therefore, Russia is also trying to identify their position. Characteristically, President Putin in his message to the Federal Assembly said “our European friends” and not simply “the European countries.” Russia remains ready to consider them as friends if they are willing to consider our interests. The situation is very difficult, but there are prospects for an agreement, including on sensitive issues such as NATO enlargement is not. But no promises, no guarantees can be expected.

Director of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe Vladislav Belov believes that a significant part of German society shares the view expressed in the Declaration. But the government’s position does not coincide with it.

In Germany, have not conducted surveys, which were set to clear questions, not formulated in such a way as to obtain a particular response. Therefore it is difficult to say how German society supports and thinks along the same lines as the authors of the appeal. To some extent you can judge by the blogs and comments to articles. It seems to me that the majority of the discussion participants, in general, agree with this view. Not accidentally closed the Süddeutsche Zeitung comments on articles related to Russian subjects.

If we talk about the official Berlin‘s position here is different. It is extremely tough and condemns Russia’s policy towards Ukraine. This is reflected not only in the criticism of Moscow and support the sanctions, but in excessive rigidity in the Russian top political leadership. While the conflict in Ukraine is not allowed, neither Angela Merkel nor her government‘s position will not change.

“SP”: – Is the German society to accept the position expressed in the declaration, or propaganda has done its job?

– German society is divided. There are actively thinking part of it on their perception of the situation closer to those who signed a petition. Declaration because seeks to strengthen the dialogue on the transition from hard-liners who preach Merkel for talks. There is a call to return the discussion platforms, which closed today an indirect criticism appeal Merkel freeze “Petersburg Dialogue”.

But there is a passive part, which is guided by a propaganda machine. This and television, and print media, which are generally very negatively disposed towards Russia and form a subjective picture, often do not match reality. That part of the society that consumes propaganda cud not accept this treatment. So far I have not seen a large number of references in the German media on this declaration. Quite possibly, it will remain unnoticed.

“SP”: In recent years, we thought our main partner of Germany in Europe. Why is the current tough stance?

This position is associated with a shock that experienced ordinary citizens and politicians in Germany on the speed with which the Crimea moved from one state to another jurisdiction. For the Germans it is unacceptable in view of their historical memory associated with the decoupling and the consequences of the Second World War. They regard the incident as an armed redistribution of boundaries. In Europe and Germany, there is no understanding of the complex processes that occurred after December 1991 is the international legal framework, since the Soviet Union collapsed outside the existing Constitution.

“SP”: The expansion of NATO to the East does not violate the international security system?

The system in general is in deep crisis. Next year marks 40 years of the Helsinki Act. Events in Ukraine became the catalyst that forces a lot of things and discuss the current situation in Europe as a whole. Such a call of politicians and public figures – a good reason to start a comprehensive discussion about the European security system, including Russia’s fears regarding NATO’s eastward expansion.

Generational theory: the world is approaching the tip of another global crisis !

 Generatsioonide teooria: maailm läheneb järjekordse globaalse kriisi tipule

Sorry,Google translation !

Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe has become known for his theory in terms of generations, the mood of the population of certain repetitive cycles. Comparing the history of the theory of these cycles can be noted that the US and the rest of the developed world is increasingly growing in the middle of the global crisis, which reaches a dangerous peak in about fifteen years.
In the book The Fourth Turningwrote the authors of the crisis prompted by the amount of precipitation may be something quite ordinary, such as elections or halvaendelist as the economy crashed. This, however, leads to spark a chain reaction in which the basic elements (debt, the disappearance of the middle class, global unrest) connection and lead society to the brink of rupture.
fourth Generatsioonide teooria: maailm läheneb järjekordse globaalse kriisi tipule
Masse led by an invisible government

Strauss and Howe said that the world is a major problem is that those in power to think linearly, making decisions based on their own interests, but in the belief that their actions do not have consequences and that their position does not invalidate anything. In fact, the history and the people running the mood in circular cycles, forming a pattern of a certain regularity. Those who have not taken the time to examine what the consequences of this behavior led, are now struggling with understanding the changes.

Linearly thinkers are accustomed to human advancement can be controlled by various measures, which are described by Edward Bernaysi book “Propaganda”. Namely, the organized habits and opinions of the people conscious and intelligent manipulation of an important element in democratic society. Those who run this mechanism, constitute an invisible government which actually prevails throughout the country. Prevail over the people and their opinions and shape the tastes of the people whom they themselves have never heard of, but who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. This type of control is, however, important to keep a large group of people working together as a functional society.

History repeats itself, the 80-year cycle

However, now come to a new level of cycling history, with the last 70 years, the plan will be worked cracked. Through the media lying, cheating, propaganda transmission, easily available credit, the so-called cheap oil, endless commercial expansion, effortless marketing, ongoing war, the banks and large corporations, elected politicians, high-class in favor of the tax system, and lobbying by the staff of the oligarchs benefit of written laws all of these have been created check the commoners and enrich the modern aristocracy, at least for the 2008 economic crisis. Linear thinkers in government, commerce, banking and the media confirm straightforward triumph of progress, while allowing recovery from the crisis, but in reality, they deliberately ignore the evidence of the history of the situation from a different evolution because they recognize how vulnerable their positions of power.

StraussHowe theory is that history repeats itself in cycles of about 80 years a new crisis comes about 60 years after the previous approach, the crisis peak occurs around 80 years after the last peak of the crisis. Each such a turning point, however, swept away the last of the existing social order. According to this theory, the US kriisitsüklid occurred as follows: first crisis was the American War of Independence (1775-1794 took place, was the peak of the crisis year of 1781), secondly, the US Civil War (from 1861 to 1865, the peak year 1863); thirdly, the Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946 , culminated in 1944), and the fourth global economic crisis (2008 to about 2029, presumably peak of 2025).

Misleading the People’s total

In September 2008, the global economic crisis that started two decades, probably noted the length of the episode begins, whose harsh conditions become progressively worse, the closer we come to the tip of the crisis. This time, most of those in power are trying to implement all kinds of fiscal measures, valeinformeerimise organizing campaigns to keep the attention of the people dispersed and confused houses. Already have managed to convince a large part of the public at 0% interest rates, while the addition of 1 trillion dollars (per year), the already large national debt of the United States, allowing the Federal Reserve to buy Wall Street 3 trillion dollars in debt. It has, however, created a high level of inflation, energy, food, health care and student areas and the real wage decline. All of these changes are advertised as the necessary steps to normalize the situation, but in fact serve only benefit from them the most affluent.

The current state of the US economic, financial, political and legal system indicates a malfunction and does not remember a strong structure to be working properly. This fact, however, masked, and the crowd’s attention is diverted humblest problems – as long as that is not noticed how the state vaesub corporations and bankers skeemitamiste through.

Those in power have no way to sell their arguments on the development, even if the enormous amount of evidence suggests the opposite. In order given to the public’s attention to other issues such as the massacres between the parties nääklused and the constant threat of terrorism in the unseen. A large part of the population is not interested even in these issues and happy to hold it is sufficient mass culture – different contents empty televised fancy celebrity”, independent thinking and discussing foreign films cinema, an obsession with social media, the importance of rapid and short-term rewarding for fast food, etc. The world is filled with trivial problems, unintelligent käpiknukkude, clock propaganda and mindless consumption.

The problems get worse in the world

All of these measures to calm the crowd, however, at some point begin to crack. History repetition of cycles can not be stopped – the people will wake up and demand change that is reshaping the current social and economic environment.

Strauss and Howe wrote his theory in 1997, based on centuries of generations, based on the analysis of non-events, but the mood of crisis in generations, the basic elements. Even before the 2008 economic crisis in the beginning, it was clear that these basic elements – the debt, the disappearance of the middle class, and global unrest and there were ägenemas. Mass media tend to ignore these problems, showing them smaller than they actually are, but if you do a bit of research, it is clear that the problems get worse. Are struggling with debt in the United States, China and several European Union countries, trying to cope with the ever-growing credit debt, student loans, housing bubbles and oil prices.

The disappearance of the middle class does not come as a surprise, given that unemployment is a major problem in the developed countries, and more than 50% of the world’s assets is only 1% of people in. The US is a major problem in the militarization of local police stations, officials preparing for massive unrest, which alienates communities of their rulers, and the so-called defenders. Global anxiety are good examples of Hong Kong, the Middle East and held in Ukraine, as well as the direction of Japan’s more aggressive foreign policy.

Propaganda will not be able to change the course of history

Propaganda can be formed opinions, but can not change the course of history or facts. US national debt has reached a record 17.5 trillion, an increase of 2 billion a day. Consumer debt has risen to new heights, reaching 3.2 trillion. Global debt level exceeds 230 trillion dollars, accounting for 313% of the global GDP. Most of the focus of launching huge corporations earn profits. If countries are trying to solve their debt problems, allowing bankers, politicians and government bureaucrats to determine more debt, reducing interest rates to zero and to enrich the oligarchs, it all ends in disaster. People suffering must be interrupted at some point, and this may occur if the crisis worsens and people are discovering how their assets, hopes and dreams are destroyed.

Given the high percentage of the population is unemployed or working in low-paying part-time job, it is easy to understand how you can grow discontent with the current system. This is how the situation is managed anti meeleavaldamisega, 2011, showed us the Occupy Wall Street protests. Instead, in order to initiate a dialogue with the protesters, the search for solutions that would help ease the situation and take account of their voice, instead of protesters began to oppress the help of the police forces. At the same time it was shown in the media as protesters näotuid, riotously vain young people who just want to cause chaos. In the later stages of the mass media of the United States came into force at the Occupy protests in complete silence – Contribute to the fact that if they do not talk about, it is believed that no protest is taking place, and the whole business will sink into oblivion.

Fight terror waged by the people behind the mask luuratakse

In addition to public voting irregularities Edward Snowden revelations have also shown that the government does not respect people’s right to privacy, at least not if they can justify the violation of privacy, national security issues. If real, these alleged threats to people is, it let everyone decide on their own, but it is certain that the alleged terrorist threat to fight under the guise of a militarized local police forces to monitor citizens’ reluctance to come into, the spread of ideas and potential leaders of the protest.

Global unrest has reached a new level when you look at Brazil, Mexico, Hong Kong, Egypt, Spain, Greece, France and Turkey jerkily demonstrations. It is also lokkamas violence in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria. A number of armed conflicts can be blamed on the decisions of the US armed with various dictators who were useful to them at some point. There are also problems former CIA plans that have undermined the influence of various democratically elected governments. Rampant violence, however, reap the benefits of the war industry and banks can be enormous income from the sale of weapons of war will be financed through borrowing. Contributing to the war is therefore practically equal to the national debt slavery arms and dependence.

What is not discussed in the mass media

The mass media do not talk about how the United States has historically been an armed terrorists who are killing in Syria now massively both soldiers and civilians. It also ignores the fact that, under the reign of Hussein’s Iraq was a modern, stable, non-religious, the oil-producing country, which was not of Al Qaeda or crazily violence. All that changed when the US invaded a sovereign state valeettekäänetel, wasted 1 trillion dollars in state assets, killed more than 100,000 Iraqis and left tallermaaks religious violence in Iraq. Also, do not talk about how the Libya deposed former dictator auxillary leaving the country into chaos and civil war.

The world has reached a point where the heads of the various decisions have an extremely sensitive topics (debt, the disappearance of the middle class, and global anxiety) to high pressure. If the crisis worsens and reaches its peak, the world can be thrown into chaos, which hopefully will not be completed using a nuclear missile of a button. Sooner or later, the debt bubble burst in the world, which leads to the property, labor, rights, and loss of confidence. This process is triggered by the massive civil unrest, which has been quietly preparing for the years of decline of the middle class and the destruction of the current structure of society.

Where in the world are exacerbated by resource wars, religious extremism and the spread of nationalism, the global war becomes an increasing probability. Where would our world and society at the heart of this crisis is moving, it is not yet certain. This could result in a crash if the progress, but it is certain that cooperation, sharing of responsibility, bold positions of peace and co-existence, and inspired leaders are essential to survive the upcoming challenges.

Sources: The Burning Platform (longer article in English, we recommend you read!), Wikipedia.

Most “hot” points in the area of ​​ATO OCTOBER 16: interactive map.


Fighting continues

The situation in the Donets Basin continues to remain tense. Fights do not stop in Donetsk and Lugansk region. In particular, the terrorists once again attacked the position of Ukrainian troops under Bahmutovkoy that twice in the morning were fired from mortars.

According to preliminary information, the press center of the ATU, in the area of fighting killed three soldiers in Ukraine and three others were wounded.

The last day in Donetsk, new destruction and victims have been shelling last night Kiev and Kuibyshev district. As a result of falling shells, and the resulting fire destroyed a house on the street №5 Tarhanova, farm building in the courtyard of the street №3 Ermolenko and garages in the cooperative “Mayak-2″ at the address. Vakhrusheva 50A. Also suffered a multi-storey residential building on the street №1 Annunciation and building children’s hospital №1. In addition, 4 injured civilians.

“Apache” Donbas “Oliver Perry” for Odessa ! Establish a program of the United States arms deliveries to Ukraine .

«Апачи» для Донбасса, «Оливер Перри» для Одессы. США разрабатывают программу поставок оружия на Украину

Washington and NATO are going to seriously equip Kyiv. On Thursday, October 9, the Deputy Secretary General of NATO Alexander Vershbow said that NATO stands ready to assist in the inspection of the security and defense of Ukraine, and “help rebuild a strong Ukrainian army.”

We will provide an opportunity to the armed forces of Ukraine and NATO countries to work together,” – Vershbow said in a video message to the participants of the international conference “Challenges of the European security architecture: Ukrainian Context” in Kiev.

A day earlier, October 8, the assistant head of the Pentagon Derek Chollet, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that the United States is considering the possibility to supply Ukraine weapon.

As noted by Chollet, on arms asked Ukrainian President Poroshenko. United States initially refused, but now interested in how to develop a program that can eventually lead to this (the supply of arms ” SP “).”

Chollet, moreover, said that the United States is ready to help “independence” to restore the navy and armed forces in general. “We want to see Ukraine and its army strong,” – said the assistant head of the Pentagon.

Recall: September 18, Poroshenko in his address to Congress, the United States asked for his country weapons and military equipment.

What is going to the United States to arm the Ukraine and when?

The United States can solve the problem with the supply as soon as possible, and to provide Ukraine with almost any weapon – says a leading researcher at the Institute of International Security Problems Alexey Fenenko. It all depends on what status will get “independence.”

If Ukraine really get the status of Major Non-NATO Ally (key ally of the United States non-NATO), the Americans, in principle, it can deliver any weapon other than the strategic and nuclear – and small, and armored vehicles, and front-line aircraft.

The second option – Washington may conclude with Kiev special agreement on the supply of arms and armaments to stipulate it to be delivered.

The third option Americans can run a special program of bilateral cooperation, modeled on the US-Georgia to equip and teach“, which operated since 2002.

The fourth option – the conclusion of a special agreement NATO-Ukraine.

As you can see, the choice of the United States is quite large. The only thing that is perhaps a little holding back Washington from forcing the issue with the supply of weapons – the experience of the five-day war in 2008. If Ukraine will lose the new conflict, and American weapons (as it was in the Russian-Georgian conflict) will get a trophy in the hands of the militia, it will be very embarrassing for the United States.

But in general, the decision whether or not to supply weapons to Kiev is entirely dependent on the administration of the United States.

“SP”: This is a complete translation of the Ukrainian army to NATO standards?

Americans have no sense fully rearm Ukraine. The purpose of the United States – to create the illusion of the Ukrainian leadership that Americans support it, to push hard to force Kiev steps. For example, when the need to ignite a new armed conflict.

That’s what Washington once acted with Saakashvili. He also supplied the American weapons is not in order to fully re-equip the Georgian army, and to create the illusion of support and push to heighten tensions in South Ossetia.

“SP”: The Americans could have armed with modern weapons limited Ukrainian contingent, so that this group tried to break through in the Crimea?

In Crimea – is unlikely, then the question is not resolved with the Donbas. American weapons are intended rather for action against the New Russia. United States think sequentially: first, the Donbass, and only then, with a favorable scenario, you can escalate the tensions over the Crimea. While, again, the priority – it Donbass.

“SP”: What exactly do you need from the American arms of the Ukrainian army to act in the Donbass?

I think nothing. Key issues in the Army of Ukraine a low level of training of personnel and inadequate planning system operations, which significantly lagged behind the advanced military practice. Finally, today Ukrainian soldiers almost no motivation to participate in hostilities. It is in these terms the reasons for the defeat in Kiev.

“SP”: But it seems that things are heading towards a peaceful settlement. Why would the United States consider military options for dealing with South-East?

– Military options are always considered. Furthermore, I am convinced that a peaceful settlement of Kiev option takes seriously. He considers exclusively peaceful pause as an opportunity to build the capacity of the Ukrainian army, and then to take revenge in the Donbass.

Besides, Kiev seriously fears that after the Donbas start conflicts around Kharkov and Zaporozhye. Ukrainian authorities are afraid that it will end up in that Kiev will lose more and Odessa last significant Ukrainian port. In my view, the United States does not exclude the escalation of hostilities in and around Mariupol.

“SP”: – What Kiev will pay off with Washington for military assistance?

– Cost of Kiev will be the injection of anti-Russian tension in Europe, inflating military conflict in the South-East, and further driving a wedge in the EU-Russia relationship.

It is unlikely that the United States and forget about the money. Supply arms where there will be military-industrial corporations, and they are in charity, even with political overtones, are not engaged.

Americans tend to start deliveries of weapons from small arms, and then transferred to the heavy weapons, and at the last stage to the supply of combat aircraft, said the analyst, retired Colonel Semen Bagdasarov. The question is how and what Ukraine will pay off with the Americans?

Money from the Ukrainian government does not. This is not Iraq, which in a short time purchased weapons at 43 billion dollars. A significant portion of these weapons bought from the United States Baghdad. However, the Iraqis were paid for delivery of money, the proceeds from the sale of oil, and what is going to pay Ukraine?

In my opinion, the only option available here: providing soft loan to Kiev in the West for military spending. Another question – what will be the size of the loan.

“SP”: which weapons can put Americans?

Rumor has it that Washington, in addition to small arms and communications equipment, ready to put Kiev attack helicopters “Apache” to Ukrainians threw them against the Donbass. However, few deliver the helicopters, you still learn to fly them Ukrainian crews. And it – it is not fast, for retraining could take a year or two.

United States will be able to quickly deliver only small arms, mines and explosive devices, as well as communications and electronic warfare. In principle, the Ukrainian army is arming does not increase. Kalashnikov rifle no worse than the American M-16, the means of communication – a good thing, but they are also fighting capacity will not increase dramatically.

In my opinion, really to equip the Ukrainian army with American weapons would take three or four years, no less

In addition to small arms, armor and military aviation, Ukraine promised to help rebuild the Navy. We tried to figure out exactly what Washington can do for Kiev in this direction.

The fact that today represent the Naval Forces of Ukraine (VMSU), eloquently, in our opinion, wrote the British newspaper The Guardian. Its correspondent Tim Sullivan recently traveled to Odessa, which had taken refuge from the Crimea kicked lumps already ailing ship of the “independence“. And his experience: “Although the Ukrainian Navy is now in Odessa, it is hard to notice. Hidden behind the tanks, in the shadow of huge cargo ships, there are two dozen boats, only some of which are larger than the large yachts, and many badly needed repairs. Government asks for help from his people, to pay the bills. “

If no emotion, in the new main base VMSU found shelter their flagship frigate “Hetman Sahaidachnycorvette Vinnitsa” missile boat Pryłuki” gunboat skadovsk” medium landing ship Kirovograd” and several auxiliary vessels. More different kinds of floating small things, which allowed Russia to escape from the Crimea, hid in Ochakov. Expect that this motley shipping company is able to fulfill at least some serious combat mission for the protection and defense of their own coasts, can not even the greatest optimists admirals in Kiev. Therefore, there is very enthusiastic about the promise of the Pentagon to help in the revival of the Ukrainian Navy.

The only way to do this – to take and give Kiev warships of its own American stocks. And I must say, the work in this direction over the ocean began last April, when it became clear that the sea Ukraine now defenseless neighboring Bulgaria and Romania. And balances the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation can not be used under any circumstances.

Back in the spring the Pentagon ordered the reactivation of standing in the bay Sesun Bay (CA) old ships Coast Guard WLB 307 Planetree WLB 395 and Iris. And he and the other built during the Second World War. Both belong to the category of unarmed lighthouse tenders, and were retired United States Navy in the 90s of the last century. The series was great, so part of the tender has already been transferred as grants Nigeria, Ghana, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia. Now, therefore, in this prestigious series of “Mistress of the Seas” will build and Ukraine.

The public press had reports that Planetree and Iris will soon be towed to Odessa, where emergency and prepare for sea battles. It is expected that this will be used for 30-mm six-barrel automatic gun mount AK-630 around rusting in Nikolaev on board and an unfinished Soviet-era missile cruiser Project 1164 “Ukraine” (formerly “Admiral head-on”). A new name for the gift of tenders in Kiev already thought Hetman Mazepa” and “GetmanBaida Vishnevetsky.”

The representative of the United States Navy Commander Giuseppe Rosetti in the same month, told reporters: “We are now” vacuum cleaner “part of our reserve fleet not only in Sesun Bay, but also in other areas of conservation, trying to determine what we can to give the Ukrainians.” By that time, according to Rosetti in candidates to strengthen VMSU patrol boats were listed types of Cape Point and the construction of 1950-1960, as well as several tank landing ships of LST, standing in conservation since the Second World War.

However, it is possible that Americans are able to offer Kiev and something fresher. For example, the frigates of the “Oliver Perrybuilt 1977-1988 period. They are designed as an ocean escort ships and are outdated though, but enough weapons (anti-ship cruise missiles, “Harpoon”, the 76-mm automatic gun Oto Melara,” the 20-mm six-barrel ZAC Mk-15 “Vulcan PHALANX“, four 12 7mm machine guns, two triple-tube 324-mm torpedo Mk.32 torpedoes Mk.46 Mod.5).

These ships were not considered particularly successful, so the Americans are actively get rid of them. As a result, four of these frigates were already in Australia, six in Spain, eight in Taiwan, eight in Turkey, four in Egypt, two in Poland, one in Pakistan and Bahrain. In 2008, the Pentagon had already discussed the supply of “Oliver Perry” and Ukraine. But it turned out that its modernization will cost Kiev at least $ 100 million. Then there was no money, and the deal fell through.

Whether there will be the necessary finances now? Very doubtful. Is that Washington itself pay and modernization. But then surely arise a new problem: can learn Ukrainian sailors gift horse with rockets Harpoon”? Very doubtful. Because even when the spring is discussed the possibility of transferring Kiev obscenely ancient reserve tenders coastal defense, an unnamed officer of the United States Navy gave reporters a doubt that the Ukrainian Navy, there is a sufficient number of trained personnel to a relatively short period of time to adopt and learn them for such large ships, as Planetree and Iris ». What can we say about the frigate?

The reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry

On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry‘s reaction to Washington’s intentions. Deliveries of the United States arms Kiev not what you need now Ukraine, it would undermine the agreement to resolve the crisis,” – said RIA “Novosti” the Russian Foreign Ministry.

What answer will get Lithuania to the provocations of the independence of Kaliningrad?

Какой ответ получит Литва на провокации о независимости Калининграда?

On this day 75 years ago was one of the key events in the recent history of Lithuania the country were transferred to the land on which is the current capital of the state. However, Lithuanian politicians and experts engaged in questions of legitimacy inclusion of Crimea and the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation, try not to be reminded of the fact that a large part of the territory of modern Lithuania recently it did not belong.

Today marks 75 years since the transfer of land Lithuania Vilnius region. After the collapse of the Russian Empire Vilnius to the surrounding areas became a disputed territory, claimed by both Poland and the young Republic of Lithuania. Only by 1922 Warsaw managed to secure a land of Wilno. As a result, we finally formed, the Republic of Lithuania had territories in which there is including its current capital. Did not have to continue, if not for the Red Army, which is September 19, 1939 entered in Vilna, and after less than a month was signed by the Lithuanian-Soviet Treaty on the Transfer of Lithuania Vilnius and Vilna area. According to contemporary accounts, the day of the signing of this contract, October 10, in Kaunas in honor of this event held festivities, the festivities, people hugging and congratulating each other. In short, Lithuania filled atmosphere vilnyusnash.”

But why 75 years later, the Lithuanian authorities to ignore such an important event in the history of their country? In connection with the anniversary is not planned any celebrations or even a modest roundtable of historians who would remind the public about yesterday’s triumph.

This “forgetfulness” Lithuanian establishment in the current environment is quite understandable: the republic’s authorities have become hostages of their own “hawkish” anti-Russian rhetoric. In political and expert community in Lithuania in recent years have increasingly there are discussions about the need to tear away from the Russian territory, which allegedly are illegal within the Russian Federation. And it’s not just about the Crimea, but also about the Kaliningrad region. For example, a few weeks ago the Lithuanian political scientist and member of the Conservative Party of Lithuania Laurynas Kaschyunas pages Lithuanian media said that in 1945, at the Potsdam Conference, Kaliningrad region was assigned to the Soviet Union only 50 years old, what is necessary to remind Russia. Also, the analyst said that it would be useful, if not a separate Russian exclave, then at least make it a special status within the borders of the Russian Federation: “If the citizens of Kaliningrad offered the prospect of economic development, opening the European market, the region would have realized that it is a natural need . If Russia will not be able to meet this demand, it will be possible to think about the referendum on the status of the Kaliningrad region. However, it is important that the referendum initiated by the people themselves. “

However, such advances to historical justifications affiliation of the territories to Russia fraught primarily for Lithuania itself.

Particularly vulnerable in this case are just the lands of the former Vilna region. Paradoxically, but the capital of Lithuania, with the surrounding areas this is one of the most “non-Lithuanian” areas of the country. For example, in the Vilnius region Poles make up the majority (over 52%) of the population. And in the nearby area Šalčininkai ethnic Lithuanians generally represent only 10% of the population. But this is only half the problem the ethnic diversity of the territories does not entail problems if the company merged into a civic nation. Lithuanian State as national minority, whether Polish or Russian, is perceived primarily as a “fifth column”, rather than as full-fledged citizens of Lithuania. In this case, the official Vilnius no effort to overcome this social schism, rather the opposite: for example, consideration of the Law on national minorities in the Diet has been postponed for the past few months.

In this case, a potential threat to the south-eastern branch of the Lithuanian territory acknowledged by Lithuanian politicians. Similar concerns have been raised even at the level of MEPs for example, in 2011 in the Lithuanian embassy in Brussels held a debate on the Lithuanian-Belarusian relations, organized by local Lithuanian community, which was attended by members of the European Parliament Justas Vincas Paleckis and Algirdas Savdargas. As part of the discussion Lithuanian politicians recognized that Lukashenko of Belarus headed convenient for Lithuania is the fact that does not allow the development of radical nationalism in his country. Algirdas Savdargas recalled then that of the Belarusian opposition voices, that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania was a Belarusian state, and Vilnius – Belarusian town, so the arrival of such political forces to power in neighboring Belarus could pose a serious threat to Lithuania.

At this point, the question of the independence of the former territories of the Vilnius Region, of course, no one is placed. However, far before that will, if from Lithuania will still penetrated with calls to reconsider membership of the Kaliningrad region in Russia? If the opinion of the Department of Russian exclave move in Lithuania with an expert on the political level, the response of Moscow is unlikely to force myself to wait, and this response is likely to be touching the legality of the existence of the land of the former Vilna region within the boundaries of modern Lithuania. But that did not happen, rather small: remember the history of their country, and not someone else.

В противостоянии с США Россия возвращает себе роль сверхдержавы ! / In the confrontation with the United States Russia is regaining its role of a superpower !

В противостоянии с США Россия возвращает себе роль сверхдержавы

Отношения РФ и США наладятся не скоро, уверен автор статьи в иранском издании Iras

Для восстановления своего положения сверхдержавы на международной арене Россия реализует две стратегии.

Первая – это стратегия многополярности для оспаривания международного положения Соединенных Штатов. Вторая – это энергетическая стратегия.

Рассмотрению этих двух стратегий и посвящена настоящая статья.

В 1944 году, на завершающем этапе Второй мировой войны термин «сверхдержава» использоваться по отношению к двум государствам – США и Советскому Союзу. Из-за этого в биполярной системе международных отношений во главе двух блоков Запада и Востока оказались два государства, занимающие ведущие позиции в политике, экономике и военной сфере.

В 1991 году с распадом СССР и крушением коммунистической идеологии внешняя политика России поблекла на международной арене, утратив всякую инициативу, поэтому Соединенные Штаты стали единственной сверхдержавой в целом мире.

Девяностые годы прошлого века отмечены острыми политическими и экономическими кризисами в России, ситуация в которой была усугублена крайней нестабильностью и общественными волнениями. По этой причине у страны не было возможности играть заметную роль в международных делах, а экономическая слабость лишала ее всех шансов в соперничестве с Западом.

В тот период Россия фактически утратила свое международное влияние, и причины этого были самые разные: развал целой империи и возвращение к границам XVII века, экономический спад и социальный кризис, экологические катастрофы, ослабление государства и армии, рост преступности и коррупции, шаткая экономика и высокая инфляция.

Однако, начиная с 2000 года, и особенно с приходом к власти Путина Россия заняла реалистичную позицию по вопросам внутренней и внешней политики и стала добиваться восстановления своего положения сверхдержавы на международной арене.

Сейчас вопрос заключается в следующем: какую стратегию реализует Россия для возвращения утраченных некогда позиций?

Для ответа на этот вопрос необходимо отметить, что в последние годы для достижения этой цели Россия придерживается двух стратегий. Во-первых, это стремление к многополярности и вызов положению США в международной политике. Во-вторых, это реализация определенных мер в энергетической сфере.

Стратегия многополярности является ответом на политику экспансии и однополярности, проводимую Соединенными Штатами. Энергетическая стратегия служит осуществлению национальных интересов России во всем мире и особенно в странах Европы и Азии.

Российская стратегия многополярности

В настоящее время Россия строит свое внешнюю политику на принципе многополярности. Она делает это с учетом международного положения США и в целях обеспечения собственных интересов в плане безопасности.

Судя по официальным заявлениям представителей российского руководства, русские добиваются проведения независимой внешней политики, направленной на создание многополярного мира, в котором Россия должна занять свое место и тем самым сузить гегемонию Соединенных Штатов в международных делах. Чтобы этого достичь, Россия, решив свои наиболее острые экономические проблемы и улучшив собственное финансовое положение, опирается на военный потенциал.

С момента прихода к власти Путин анонсировал три основополагающих принципа своего курса: модернизация экономики, достижение видной роли в процессах мировой конкуренции и восстановление положения России в качестве новой крупной державы.

Тактика и конкретные шаги российских политиков доказывают тот факт, что они крайне недовольны односторонними действиями Соединенных Штатов. Явно с 2007 года, а тайно еще раньше, Россия, поверив в собственные силы благодаря достигнутым успехам в разных сферах геополитики и геоэкономики, проводит политику «прямого сопротивления» американскому волюнтаризму и гегемонии.

Россия при Путине официально не признает однополярный режим как упорядочивающий принцип устройства мира и считает, что он противоречит ее национальным интересам.

Например, в своем весьма резком выступлении на Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности в 2007 году Путин бросил вызов односторонней тактике США и попыткам этой страны установить в мире режим однополярности. Еще тогда российский президент заявил следующее: «Режим однополярности не только не приемлем, но и его установление в нынешних условиях невозможно в принципе».

Он опроверг утверждение о том, что в современной международной обстановке существует «один центр власти, один центр принятия решений, один хозяин и одно правительство», и ясно определил намерение России добиваться установления разумного баланса интересов всех игроков, присутствующих на международной арене.

Другими словами, режиму однополярности, сложившемуся после окончания холодной войны, так и не удалось окончательно закрепиться. Наступательная политика в энергетической сфере с акцентом на собственное положении энергетической сверхдержавы, масштабная программа модернизации армии, крупные поставки вооружения другим странам, несогласие с установлением систем противовоздушной обороны в Восточной Европе и отказ от Договора об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе (ДОВСЕ), установление новых систем противоракетной обороны в Ленинградской области, поддержка ядерной программы Ирана, участие в сирийских событиях и помощь правительству Башара Асада и, что самое главное, отношение к последнему кризису на Украине – все это является ясным доказательством попыток России повысить свой статус в решении международных вопросов, результатом которых и стала напряженность в отношениях с Соединенными Штатами.

Российское руководство убеждено в том, что установленный США однополярный режим существует лишь временно, он неустойчив и действует несправедливо, поэтому последние события в мире, новые коалиции государств и появление таких держав, как Китай, Индия и Россия, бросают вызов этому режиму. Сторонники этой точки зрения считают, что сложившийся империалистический режим не отвечает современным международным условиям, и довольно скоро в мире установится новый баланс сил.

Таким образом, усиление напряженности между Россией и Соединенным Штатами убедило русских в том, что данный процесс может не только еще больше ослабить американцев, но и привести к их международной изоляции. Российское правительство, ссылаясь на современные события в мире и ослабление США из-за их неверной политики в последние годы, считает нынешнюю ситуацию вполне подходящей для превращения своей страны в крупную мировую державу, или, выражаясь иначе, межрегиональную силу, способную влиять на международную систему и принимаемые в ее рамках решения.

Россия решительно добивается нового распределения власти в мировых делах. Возрастающее стремление этой страны к новому разделению власти основывается на прямом несогласии с американской однополярностью и представлении о том, что управление международными делами едва ли возможно без участия российской дипломатии. Путем создания коалиции с такими державами, как Китай и Иран, Россия пытается положить конец волюнтаризму и политике силы Соединенных Штатов на международной арене.

На данном основании Россия позиционирует себя в качестве крупной державы и постоянно в разного рода обращениях по тем или иным международным вопросам критикует США за их однополярность, гегемонию и вмешательство во внутренние дела других государств. Президент Путин пытается позиционировать свою страну как державу, играющую мировое значение и активно участвующую в урегулировании глобальных проблем.

Между тем, Соединенные Штаты стремятся лишить Россию права участвовать в решении международных вопросов. Если Россия вновь окрепнет, влиянию и интересам США в соседних с нею регионах будет брошен серьезный вызов. Декларативные и практические меры России с целью постепенного изменения существующего положения и достижения более высокого уровня в решении судеб мира порождает у американского руководства чувства тревоги за собственное лидерство в международных делах после распада Советского Союза и все больше заставляет его оценивать ситуацию как фактическое сохранение статус-кво, поскольку Россия постепенно набирает силы, а США слабеют. Именно по этой причине США стараются создавать как можно ограничений на пути развития России.

Энергетическая стратегия России: энергоресурсы как рычаг политического давления

Суть внешней политики России при президенте Путине заключается в конкуренции за возвращение своей роли сверхдержавы. По мнению российского лидера, распад Советского Союза в 1991 году был самой большой трагедией ХХ века, поэтому он добивается восстановления позиций России, которые она имела еще в советскую эпоху. В этом ключе энергетическая стратегия России направлена на восстановление ее статуса сверхдержавы.

Обладая самыми большими в мире запасами газа и нефти, Россия на международной арене смогла продемонстрировать свою силу в противостоянии Европейскому Союзу и США. Используя скрытую политику угроз в энергетическом плане, кремлевское руководство полагает, что у Запада, который крайне нуждается в российских энергоресурсах, нет никаких шансов. Поэтому энергетика стала для России мощным рычагом контроля политики Европейского союза и стран на Ближнем Востоке и в Центральной Азии.

Свою энергетическую стратегию Россия разработала летом 2003 года, когда Владимир Путин отвел ей центральное место в российской дипломатии. Тогда в целях сохранения за Россией лидирующих позиций на мировом газовом рынке были предприняты меры для предотвращения диверсификации энергопоставок, особенно для европейских стран.

Запасы нефти и газа играют ключевую роль в возвращении России главной роли на мировой арене. И в Кремле, и в политических кругах других стран существует представление о том, что благодаря своим огромнейшим запасам энергоресурсов Россия способна вернуть себе позиции сверхдержавы. Не вызывает никаких сомнений тот факт, что Россия уже стала сверхдержавой в плане энергетики.

Сейчас эта страна относится к числу самых крупных поставщиков природного газа, а за период с 1998 по 2004 года российский экспорт нефти составил почти 48% от общего объема мировых поставок этого сырья. В настоящее время Россия поставляет на мировой рынок 22% природного газа и четверть от 40% газового импорта в Европу. Нефтяные поставки этой страны составляют 12% от мирового объема, в то время как в Европе доля «черного золота» из России составляет 22%.

Кроме того, Россия контролирует поставки нефти и газа из Туркмении и Казахстана. Таким образом, ее нефтяная дипломатия, в первую очередь, завязана на европейских странах, потому как экономически они сильно зависят от российской нефти. Европа осознает, что это является ее слабым местом, и поэтому ищет альтернативные поставки энергоресурсов.

Активность российской энергетической дипломатии ощущается и в Азии. В этот регион Россия поставляет всего лишь 3% своей нефти. Тем не менее ожидается, что к 2020 году этот экспорт может увеличиться до 20%. В связи с этим Россия пытается не ограничиваться привязанностью только к одному потребителю (имеется в виду Китай), а расширить круг покупателей своего топлива за счет Японии и Южной Кореи.

Итак, Россия превратилась в энергетическую сверхдержаву, поэтому она использует свою энергетическую стратегию для подъема собственного национального духа. Ее руководство заботится о сохранении территориального единства своей страны и предотвращении внешних угроз, в том числе и военного характера.

Для этого усилия Москвы направлены на то, чтобы использовать энергетический экспорт в качестве инструмента политики. Так, враждебные страны наказываются отказом осуществлять поставки в них российских энергоносителей, в то время как сильные дружественные государства наоборот получают всяческую поддержку, а их компаниям позволят инвестировать в развитие российской нефтегазовой отрасли.

Многие арабские страны тоже используют энергоресурсы в качестве инструмента политического давления, однако они бессильны в плане достижения своих целей и, в частности, не могут добиться поражения Израиля. Вместе с тем энергетика играет отрицательную роль в деле становления сверхдержавы. Дело в том, что зависимость от энергоресурсов обычно ведет к незначительному экономическому росту и политической нестабильности.

Однако здесь надо отметить, что в этом плане Россия отличает от других стран. До 1991 года эта страна была военной сверхдержавой, и после распада Советского Союза она частично сохранила его оружейный потенциал, включая ядерный арсенал и современные технологии. Кроме того, Россия, как и прежде Советский Союза, продолжает поставлять оружие в другие страны. Таким образом, потенциал этой страны основывается на огромных запасах энергоресурсов и советской военной технике, что и подкрепляет представление о ней как «энергетической сверхдержаве».

В настоящее время вместо подразделений Красной Армии для давления на Украину, кавказские и среднеазиатские республики используется энергетика, природный газ и связанные с этим компании. Россия способна изменить сложившуюся ситуацию на евразийском пространстве только за счет энергетики. Эта страна приобретает свой новый потенциал для «мягкой силы» и увеличения политического и экономического влияния благодаря огромным запасам нефти.

Начавшееся с 2000 года увеличение цены на нефть и газ привело к экономическому росту России и осуществлению важных реформ в этой стране. Как результат, российское руководство пересмотрело свою внешнюю и внутреннюю политику. В современной международной ситуации нефть и газ сделали Россию настоящей державой и соперником Соединенных Штатов. Энергетические компании России при поддержке национального правительства работают по всему миру. С 2000 года российские нефтяные и газовые гиганты, такие как «Лукойл», заняли видное место в энергетической сфере стратегически важных регионов Ближнего Востока, соседних государствах Восточной Европы и даже в США.

Россия обеспечивает половину поставок газа в Европу. Так, например, в 2006 году Германия на 40% обеспечивала себя поставками российского газа, Греция – на 84%, Австрия – на 78%, а страны Балтии и Финляндия – на 100%.

До прихода Путина к власти иностранные аналитики говорили о слабости и деградации российской экономики, а правительство этой страны обвиняли в коррумпированности и непрофессионализме. Тогда Россия была поверженной страной, не способной установить внутренний порядок. В 90-х годах прошлого века никто не думал, что эта страна когда-нибудь сможет вернуть себе положение сверхдержавы.

Улучшение экономической ситуации началось в 2000 году. Именно после этого благодаря политике российского руководства начала реализовываться идея «России как энергетической сверхдержавы». В рамках данной идеи мощь страны стала трактоваться как использование нефти и газа в качестве орудия усиления собственного влияния на соседние страны и на мировой арене в целом.

В результате этого в 2000-х годах с ростом мировых цен на топливо энергоресурсы стали базой развития российской экономики и сильным инструментом внешней политики и дипломатии. На саммите «Большой восьмерки» в 2005 году Путин заявил, что Россия, будучи к тому же и ядерной державой, обладает самым большим потенциалом в нефтегазовой области и лидирует на мировом энергетическом рынке. И действительно, Россия стала крупным производителем и экспортером нефти и природного газа и обладает наибольшими в мире запасами нефти и урана.

Словом, в 2003 году энергетическая стратегия России недвусмысленно заявила об энергоресурсах как политическом инструменте, а в доктрине 2009 года подчеркивается, что энергетическая тематика является новым направлением внешней политики этой страны.


Итак, в своей статье мы коротко рассмотрели стратегию многополярности и энергетическую стратегию, которые применяет Россия в целях восстановления собственного положения сверхдержавы на глобальном уровне.

Как было отмечено, именно с приходом к власти Путина в 1999 году и улучшением ситуации в экономической, политической и военных сферах эти две стратегии оказались во главе угла российской внешней политики. В нашей статье мы рассмотрели стратегию многополярности и оспаривание Россией положения США в качестве гегемона на международной арене.

Испытав сильное унижение в постсоветский период, начиная с 2000 года русские, урегулировав свои внутригосударственные проблемы, вознамерились отомстить США и ограничить сферу интересов этой страны в геополитически важных регионах, таких как Кавказ, Западная и Центральная Азия.

Сделав ставку во внешней политике на стратегию многополярности, в последние годы Россия пытается играть активную роль в международных делах и проводить политику, совершенно не зависимую от Запада и США. С 2000 года Россия всевозможными способами старается нивелировать роль США в решении политических вопросов разных регионов мира и по некоторым из них занимает весьма принципиальную позицию, действуя вопреки воле американцев.

Протесты по поводу размещения систем противоракетной обороны США в Восточной Европе, война в Грузии, поддержка ядерной программы Ирана, поддержка правительства Башара Асада в Сирии, несогласие с военным вмешательством западных стран в эту страну и, наконец, последние события на Украине отчетливо демонстрируют решительную позицию России, направленную против Соединенных Штатов.

Принимая во внимание все эти шаги российского правительства, многие политологи и специалисты по международным отношениям говорят об окончании периода однополярности и начале новой холодной войны между Россией и США.

Подводя итог, можно прогнозировать, что Соединенные Штаты продолжат попытки сохранить нынешнее положение и собственную роль лидера и экспансиониста в мире, а Россия будет предпринимать усилия для изменения существующих условий и установления многополярной структуры в международных делах, бросая при этом вызов империалистическому строю.

При этом существует целый спектр тем, связанных со стратегиями безопасности, который свидетельствует о серьезном соперничестве между США и Россией. Сейчас основная часть международных проблем, в которых проявляется конкуренция между Москвой и Вашингтоном, касается стратегического паритета, проекта установления систем противовоздушной обороны, региональных кризисов в Афганистане, Северной Корее и Сирии, геополитического соперничества в плане расширения НАТО, нынешней дестабилизации ситуации на Украине, а также такого ряда вопросов, как соблюдение прав человека и предоставление политического убежища Эдварду Сноудену.

Таким образом, в настоящий момент все эти проблемы наводят на мысль о том, что российско-американские отношения наладятся еще далеко не скоро. На пути сближения двух стран постоянно находятся определенные негативные моменты, которые препятствуют их развитию.

Google translation !

Relations between Russia and the United States will improve any time soon, I’m sure the author of the article in the Iranian edition Iras

To restore its position in the international arena superpower Russia implements two strategies.

The first – a strategy to challenge the multipolarity of the international position of the United States. Second it’s energy strategy.

Consideration of these two strategies are addressed in this article.

In 1944, at the final stage of World War II, the term “superpower” used in relation to the two states the United States and the Soviet Union. Because of this, in the bipolar system of international relations at the head of two blocks of East and West were the two states, which occupy leading positions in the political, economic and military spheres.

In 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the communist ideology faded Russian foreign policy in the international arena, having lost all initiative, why the United States became the only superpower in the whole world.

Nineties of the last century were marked by severe political and economic crisis in Russia, the situation which has been aggravated by extreme instability and social unrest. For this reason, the country has not had a chance to play a prominent role in international affairs, and economic weakness deprived her of all the chances in the competition with the West.

At that time, Russia has virtually lost its international influence and the reasons were different: the collapse of the whole empire, and return to the borders of the XVII century, the economic recession and social crisis, environmental disaster, weakening of the state and the army, rising crime and corruption, a shaky economy and high inflation.

However, since 2000, and especially since Putin came to power Russia took a realistic stance on domestic and foreign policy and began to seek recovery of its superpower position in the international arena.

Now the question is: what strategy implements Russia to return lost items once?

To answer this question it is necessary to note that in recent years to achieve this goal, Russia holds the two strategies. Firstly, it is the pursuit of multipolarity and challenge the position of the United States in international politics. Second, is the implementation of certain measures in the energy sector.

Multipolarity strategy is a response to a policy of expansion and unilateralism by the United States. Energy strategy is the implementation of Russia’s national interests around the world and especially in Europe and Asia.

Russian strategy multipolarity

Currently, Russia is building its foreign policy on the principle of multipolarity. It does this with the international situation and the United States in order to ensure their own interests in terms of security.

According to official statements made by the Russian government, the Russian press for an independent foreign policy, aimed at the creation of a multipolar world in which Russia should take its place, and thus narrow the hegemony of the United States in international affairs. To achieve this, Russia, deciding their most pressing economic problems and to improve their financial position, based on military capabilities.

Since coming to power, Putin announced the three pillars of its course: the modernization of the economy, achieving a prominent role in the processes of global competition and the restoration of Russia’s position as a major new powers.

Tactics and specific steps of Russian politicians argue that they are extremely dissatisfied with the unilateral actions of the United States. Apparently in 2007, but secretly earlier, Russia, believing in their own power thanks to the achievements in the various fields of geopolitics and geo-economics, pursuing a policy of “direct resistance” to the American hegemony and voluntarism.

Putin’s Russia does not officially recognize the unipolar mode as the ordering principle of the world and believes that it is contrary to its national interests.

For example, in a very dramatic speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin challenged unilateral tactics the United States and the country’s efforts to establish in the world unipolar mode. Even then, the Russian president said: “The regime of unipolarity is not only acceptable, but also its establishment in the present circumstances it is impossible in principle.”

He denied the allegation that in the current international situation, there is one center of authority, one center of decision-making, one master and one government,” and clearly defined Russia’s intention to seek to establish a reasonable balance between the interests of all the players present on the international scene.

In other words, the regime of unipolarity, formed after the Cold War, and was unable to finally gain a foothold. Offensive policy in the energy sector with a focus on their own position as an energy superpower, large-scale program to modernize the army, large supplies of arms to other countries, opposition to the establishment of air defense systems in Eastern Europe and the rejection of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the establishment of new systems missile defense in the Leningrad region, support for Iran’s nuclear program, participation in events and help the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad and, most importantly, with the last crisis in Ukraine – all this is clear evidence of Russia’s attempts to raise its status in international affairs, which resulted in and became the tensions with the United States.

The Russian leadership is convinced that the United States established a unipolar mode exists only temporarily, it is unstable and unfair acts, so the recent events in the world, the new coalition of states and the emergence of powers such as China, India and Russia, are challenging the regime. Proponents of this view believe that the established imperialist regime does not meet current international conditions, and pretty soon the world established a new balance of power.

Thus, the increased tension between Russia and the United States convinced the Russian is that this process can not only further weaken the Americans, but also lead to international isolation. The Russian government, referring to the current events in the world and the weakening of the United States because of their wrong policies in recent years, said the current situation is quite suitable for the transformation of the country into a major world power, or to put it differently, inter-regional power capable of influencing the international system and taken in the framework of its decision.

Russia strongly seeking a new distribution of power in world affairs. The increasing desire of this country to a new power-sharing based on the direct disagreement with American unipolarity and the notion that the management of international affairs is hardly possible without the participation of Russian diplomacy. Through a coalition with such powers as China and Iran, Russia is trying to put an end to voluntarism and political forces of the United States in the international arena.

On this basis Russia is positioning itself as a major power and constantly in all sorts of appeals on various international issues, criticized the United States for unipolarity, hegemony and interference in the internal affairs of other states. President Putin is trying to position his country as the powers that global significance and is actively involved in the resolution of global problems.

Meanwhile, the United States seeks to deprive Russia of the right to participate in international issues. If Russia is again stronger, influence and interests of the United States in its neighboring regions will be seriously challenged. Declarative and practical measures Russia to a gradual change in the status quo and achieve a higher level in deciding the destiny of the world gives rise to the American management of anxiety for their own leadership in international affairs after the collapse of the Soviet Union and all the more makes it to assess the situation as the actual maintenance of the status quo, because Russia is gradually gaining strength and weaken the United States. It is for this reason that the United States are trying to create as possible limitations to the development of Russia.

Russia’s energy strategy: energy as a lever of political pressure

The essence of Russia’s foreign policy under President Putin is in competition for the return of its role as a superpower. According to the Russian leader, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century, so it is seeking recovery of Russia’s position that it had in the Soviet era. In this vein, Russia’s energy strategy aims to restore its superpower status.

With the world’s largest reserves of oil and gas, Russia in the international arena was able to demonstrate its strength in opposition to the European Union and the United States. Using a hidden policy of threats in terms of energy, the Kremlin leadership believes that the West, which is in dire need of Russian energy resources, there is no chance. Therefore, energy has become a powerful lever for Russian control policy of the European Union and countries in the Middle East and Central Asia.

His Russian energy strategy developed in the summer of 2003, when Vladimir Putin took her central place in Russian diplomacy. Then, in order to maintain the leading position in Russia in the global gas market measures have been taken to prevent the diversification of energy supplies, particularly for European countries.

Oil and gas reserves play a key role in the return of Russian leading role on the world stage. And in the Kremlin and in political circles in other countries, there is the idea that, thanks to its huge energy resources, Russia is able to regain his position as a superpower. There is no doubt that Russia has become a superpower in terms of energy.

Now this country is one of the largest suppliers of natural gas, and for the period from 1998 to 2004, Russia’s oil exports amounted to almost 48% of the total world supply of this raw material. Russia currently supplies the world market 22% of natural gas and a quarter from 40% of gas imports to Europe. Oil supply in this country is 12% of the world total, while in Europe the share of “black gold” of Russia is 22%.

In addition, Russia controls the supply of oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. So its oil diplomacy, primarily tied to the European countries, because the cost they are heavily dependent on Russian oil. Europe is aware that this is its weakest point, and therefore looking for alternative energy supplies.

Activity of Russian energy diplomacy felt in Asia. In this region, Russia supplies only 3% of its oil. Nevertheless, it is expected that by 2020, these exports may increase to 20%. In this regard, Russia is trying to go beyond attachment to only one user (referring to China), and expand the number of buyers of its fuel by Japan and South Korea.

Thus, Russia has become an energy superpower, so it uses its energy strategy to lift its own national spirit. Its leaders concerned about the preservation of the territorial unity of the country and preventing external threats, including those of a military nature.

To do this, Moscow’s efforts are aimed at being able to use energy exports as a political tool. So hostile country is punished by a refusal to supply them Russian energy, while strong friendly states on the contrary receive full support and allow their companies to invest in the development of Russia’s oil and gas industry.

Many Arab countries are also using energy as an instrument of political pressure, but they are powerless in terms of achieving its objectives and, in particular, can not achieve the destruction of Israel. However, energy plays a negative role in the formation of a superpower. The fact that the dependence on energy usually leads to a slight economic growth and political instability.

However, it should be noted that in this respect, Russia differs from other countries. Until 1991 this country was a military superpower, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is partially retained its weapons capability, including nuclear arsenal and modern technology. In addition, Russia, as before the Soviet Union continued to supply weapons to other countries. Thus, the potential of this country is based on the vast energy resources and Soviet military equipment, which reinforces the idea of ​​it as an “energy superpower.”

Currently, instead of units of the Red Army to put pressure on Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asian republics used energy, natural gas and related companies. Russia is able to change the situation in the Eurasian space only by energy. The country gets its new potential for “soft power” and increasing political and economic influence thanks to its vast oil resources.

Begun in 2000 the increase in price of oil and gas has led to economic growth in Russia and the implementation of important reforms in the country. As a result, the Russian government has revised its foreign and domestic policies. In the current international situation, oil and gas prices have made Russia the present power and rival the United States. Russian energy companies, with the support of national governments are working around the world. Since 2000, the Russian oil and gas giants, such as “Lukoil”, featured prominently in the energy sector is strategically important regions of the Middle East, neighboring countries in Eastern Europe and even the United States.

Russia provides half of gas supplies to Europe. For example, in 2006 Germany 40% sufficient in the supply of Russian gas, Greece – 84%, Austria – 78%, and the Baltic countries and Finland – 100%.

Before Putin came to power, foreign analysts said the weakness and degradation of the Russian economy, and the Government has been accused of corruption and incompetence. Then Russia was defeated country, unable to establish internal order. In the 90s of the last century, no one thought that this country is ever to regain superpower status.

Improving the economic situation began in 2000. It was after this due to the policy of the Russian leadership was launched the idea of ​​”Russia as an energy superpower.” As part of this idea became the country’s might be interpreted as the use of oil and gas as a tool to strengthen its influence on neighboring countries and on the world scene as a whole.

As a result, in the 2000s, with the rise in world prices for fuel energy resources have become the foundation of the Russian economy and a strong instrument of foreign policy and diplomacy. At the summit of the “Big Eight” in 2005, Putin said that Russia, in addition to being a nuclear weapons state and has the greatest potential in the oil and gas industry and is a leader in the global energy market. Indeed, Russia has become a major producer and exporter of oil and natural gas and has the largest reserves in the world oil and uranium.

In short, in 2003, Russia’s energy strategy clearly stated about energy resources as a political tool, and in the doctrine of 2009 emphasized that energy issues is the new direction of the foreign policy of this country.


So, in his article, we briefly discussed the strategy of multi-polarity and energy strategy, which uses Russian in order to restore their situation superpower on a global level.

As noted, it is with Putin came to power in 1999 and the improvement of the situation in the economic, political and military spheres, these two strategies have been at the forefront of Russian foreign policy. In our article, we discussed the strategy of multi-polarity and challenging position of Russia in the United States as a hegemonic power in the international arena.

Having experienced a strong humiliation in the post since 2000, Russian resolve their domestic problems, set out to take revenge on the United States and limit the scope of the interests of this country in a geopolitically important regions such as the Caucasus, Western and Central Asia.

Making a bet in the foreign policy strategy of multipolarity, in recent years, Russia is trying to play an active role in international affairs and policies, it is not dependent on the West and the United States. Since 2000, Russia is trying all possible ways to level the role of the United States in dealing with political issues in different regions of the world and some of them occupies a very principled position, acting against the will of Americans.

Protests concerning the deployment of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe, the United States, the war in Georgia, support Iran’s nuclear program, support for the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the opposition to the military intervention of Western countries in this country, and finally, the recent events in Ukraine demonstrate clearly the strong position of Russia directed against the United States.

Taking into account all these steps the Russian government, many political scientists and specialists in international relations say about the end of the period of unipolarity and the beginning of a new Cold War between Russia and the United States.

Summarizing, we can predict that the United States will continue to attempt to maintain the current situation and their own leadership and expansionist in the world, and Russia will make efforts to change the existing conditions and the establishment of a multipolar structure in international affairs, while throwing a challenge to the imperialist system.

In this case, there is a whole range of topics related to the security strategy that indicates a serious rivalry between the USA and Russia. Now the bulk of international problems, which manifest competition between Moscow and Washington, concerns the strategic parity, the project of establishing air defense systems, regional crises in Afghanistan, North Korea and Syria, geopolitical rivalry in terms of the expansion of NATO, the current destabilization of the situation in Ukraine, as well as a number of issues such as human rights and political asylum Edward Snowden.

So, now all these problems suggest that the Russian-American relations will improve further away any time soon. In the way of rapprochement between the two countries are always some negative things that hinder their development.

Киев срывает «план Путина» ! / Kiev break “Putin’s plan”!

Киев срывает «план Путина». Украинские власти не хотят и не могут остановить кровопролитие в Донбассе


Украинские власти не хотят и не могут остановить кровопролитие в Донбассе.

Владимир Путин предложил воюющим сторонам на Украине «дорожную карту», как остановить кровопролитие в Донбассе. Правда, мирный план вряд ли будет реализован. Этому помешает отсутствие политической воли у Киева и тот факт, что центральная власть не контролирует все вооруженные формирования, воюющие против народного ополчения Новороссии.

Свою инициативу Владимир Путин озвучил в ходе своего визита в Монголию. План содержит семь пунктов. Первый – прекратить все военные действия. Второй – отвести вооружённые подразделения силовых структур Украины на расстояние, исключающее возможность обстрела населённых пунктов артиллерией и всеми видами систем залпового огня. При этом соблюдение условий должны контролировать международные наблюдатели. Авиация должна отказаться от бомбардировок мирных городов и сел. При этом стороны должны произвести обмен пленными по формуле «всех на всех» без дополнительных условий, открыть коридоры для доставки гуманитарных грузов в Донбасс и обеспечить условия работы ремонтных бригад для восстановления инфраструктуры.

Премьер-министр Донецкой народной республики Александр Захарченко уже заявил, что ополченцы давно предлагали прекратить огонь и поддерживают план Путина. Но Киев должен заставить прекратить огонь не только армию, но и подразделения нацгвардии и частные батальоны.

По всей видимости, именно это условие и не может выполнить украинская власть. Ведь нацгвардия и частные батальоны снабжаются олигархами и подчиняются именно им. А они, в частности Игорь Коломойский, не настроены на мир.

В то же время, не может Киев не учитывать и мнение иностранных государств. Запад же финансировал Майдан, оказывал дипломатическое давление на Януковича и требовал начала военной операции в Донбассе явно не для того, чтобы в один момент пойти на признание народных республик. «Я думаю, суть в том, что россияне не искренне заинтересованы в прекращении огня. Они продолжают дестабилизировать восточную Украину», – уже заявил генсек НАТО Андерс Фог Расмуссен. При этом Северо-Атлантический альянс не ограничился словами, а направил в Черное море свои корабли. В акваторию вечером в среду вошли с управляемыми ракетами на борту французский корвет «Коммандан Биро» и американский эсминец «Росс», на подходе канадский фрегат «Торонто» и испанский фрегат «Альмиранте Хуан де Бурбон».

Внутриполитическая ситуация на Украине тоже далека от той, которая бы позволила заключить мирное соглашение. Хоть сам Порошенко и готов обсуждать предложения Путина, но его окружение требует продолжения войны. «Семь пунктов российского президента якобы для решения кризиса на Украине удивительным образом напоминают план спасения для российских террористов», – категорично заявил премьер-министр Украины Арсений Яценюк.

Тем не менее, сама Украина буквально трещит по швам. По словам назначенного из Киева губернатора Донецкой области Таруты, если украинская армия сдаст окруженный ополченцами Мариуполь, Украина должна будет признать поражение в войне. Дело в том, что в условиях отсутствия поставок российского газа вся надежда украинской энергетики сейчас на уголь. Его много в Донбассе, но Киев не контролирует этот регион. В результате Украина была вынуждена подписать контракт на поставку миллиона тонн из ЮАР. Но единственный порт, способный принимать корабли с углем, находится в Мариуполе. Так что перспектива всей стране зимой замерзнуть вполне реальная.

Но, видимо, в Киеве об этом думать не хотят. Там политики заняты предвыборными баталиями и говорят о скорой военной победе. Так что планы наиболее радикальных командиров ополчения скоро взять столицу Украины звучат вполне реально.

– Осуществимость плана Путина зависит от того, насколько враждующие стороны воспримут его как реальную дорогу к миру, – говорит профессор ВШЭ Леонид Поляков. – Со стороны ополченцев готовность работать по этому плану намного более высокая. Они действительно готовы сесть за стол переговоров и начать обсуждать формат присутствия Новороссии в составе Украины. Что касается Киева, то тут большое количество проблем. Прекратить военную операцию Порошенко будет очень сложно. До сих пор «партия войны» доминирует в украинской политике и в массовом сознании. Большинство населения не довольны снабжением армии, но не самой войной. Для украинского руководства очень трудно переступить через себя и принять план человека, которого считают врагом. Есть и фактор наличия западных советников, которые не очень заинтересованы в движении Украины по маршруту, указанному Россией. Хотя Евросоюз склоняется к мнению, что нужно политическое решение. Но всё зависит от Киева.

«СП»: – Но украинские СМИ могут развернуть парадигму и вести агитацию за мир.

– Украинские СМИ находятся в руках нескольких олигархических групп. Так что всё будет зависеть от игр олигархов. Найдутся люди, готовые сыграть на настроениях усталости и разочарования. Но могут найтись и крайние радикалы, которые используют сложное положение Порошенко для того, чтобы самим прорваться во власть. И если не путем нового Майдана, то хотя бы на выборах в Верховную Раду.

План Путина – это абсолютно продуманный выход из ситуации, ни по одному из семи пунктов никто ничего возразить не может. Это предложение опытного политика. Но план попадает в сложный киевский контекст, где завязано много противоречий. Так что исполнение плана Киевом под большим вопросом. Хотя ополченцы готовы следовать «дорожной карте».

«СП»: – Может ли Запад уговорить Киев прекратить войну под напором обстоятельства успеха ополчения?

– В Евросоюзе нет единства на эту тему. Хотя руководители крупных стран – Франции и Германии – должны оказывать на Порошенко давление в пользу этого плана. Но есть еще и Соединенные Штаты, а их интерес в продолжении конфликта как можно дольше. Чтобы никаких вариантов сближения России и Украины не осталось. Порошенко в очень сложной ситуации. Сам он похож на договороспособного человека, но он не самостоятелен. И наверняка у его американских друзей есть какая-то информация, которая может его сильно дискредитировать.

Президент Центра системного анализа и прогнозирования (Украина) Ростислав Ищенко полагает, что Киев даже при большом желании уже не сможет пойти на мирные переговоры:

– Выполнение плана по урегулированию маловероятно. Сам план совершенно нормальный, но мы имеем дело с неадекватными людьми в Киеве. И речь даже не о самом Порошенко, которому нужна передышка, а об остальной украинской власти. Проблема в том, что президент не может чем-то управлять. Территориальные батальоны полностью вышли из-под контроля: кто хочет – дезертирует, кто хочет – разбегается, кто хочет – воюет, другие грозят свергнуть Порошенко.

К тому же, украинская власть жертвует своей собственной пропагандой. Она пропагандировала войну, теперь очень сложно будет объяснить, почему она хочет заключить мир. Все последние недели, несмотря на поражения украинской армии от ополченцев, киевская пропаганда говорит о тысячах погибших российских военнослужащих и что чуть ли вообще не всю российскую армию перебили. Сложно будет объяснить перемирие, если есть военные успехи. Общественность в Киеве и городах на западе Украины конечно не хочет отправлять своих родственников на войну, но эта же общественность хочет, чтобы кто-то эту войну выиграл. Люди настроены так, что вся проблема в неумелых командующих, а потому надо поменять Порошенко и начальника Генштаба, и тогда война будет выиграна.

«СП»: – Власть в Киеве зависит от внешних сил, они могут уговорить пойти на перемирие.

– Вашингтону совершенно не выгодно, чтобы Порошенко заключал мир. Американцы считать умеют, и не хотят соглашений о фактическом признании Новороссии. Ведь это приведет к дальнейшей дефрагментации Украины. Войска начнут расходиться по домам, а восстания могут произойти в Харькове и других городах.

Вашингтон понимает, что киевская власть обанкротилась, дальше ее содержать нет желания и возможностей. Но чтобы бросить Киев на произвол судьбы, США нужен какой-то повод. Если власть рухнет под напором внутренних проблем и руководство в стране захватят боевики, то Вашингтон сможет сказать, что легитимный президент свергнут неизвестно кем, поэтому дальше поддерживать Украину мы не будем. Но это возможно только в том случае, если будут продолжаться поражения украинской армии. Но что получит Вашингтон сейчас? Договоренности о фактическом признании ДНР и ЛНР? Тогда вопрос: почему же не надо было соглашаться на федерализацию, а сейчас признавать независимость республик?

Давайте посмотрим на позицию Вашингтона. Он пытается перенести противостояние России в плоскость усиления группировок НАТО в Восточной Европе, срыва поставок «Мистралей». Украина воспринимается как отыгранная карта, США оттуда уходят. Посмотрим, что будет дальше.

«СП»: – На Западе говорят о возможном вводе миротворцев, в том числе и российских. Тогда конфликт не перекинется на Харьков.

– Но для этого нужно развести войска, поэтому потребуется контакт Киева с ополчением Новороссии. Надо будет создать буферную зону и ввести туда миротворцев. Но если Киев даст команду войскам отойти и позволит войти российским миротворцам, то это будет последний день украинского режима, его просто свергнут радикалы.

«СП»: – Армия Новороссии наступает, украинская армия разбредается. Чем может закончиться конфликт?

– Всё зависит от того, насколько быстрыми темпами армия Новороссии будет наращивать свой боевой потенциал. Чтобы наступать дальше, необходимо контролировать свои коммуникации, держать гарнизоны в городах. Если через неделю-две количество ополченцев составит более 40 тысяч человек, то Новороссия будет наступать. Военное поражение Киева из фронтовой катастрофы перейдет в разряд уже политической катастрофы.

Но нет никакой гарантии, что ополчение сможет наращивать силы быстрыми темпами. Если сейчас наступит оперативная пауза, то киевский режим сможет укрепиться. По крайней мере, у него появится время. Станут понятны дипломатические контакты. Но сложно будет прогнозировать продвижение ополчения на Запад. Есть вероятность, что начнутся восстания в крупных украинских городах. Но мы не знаем, начнутся ли они и если начнутся, то когда. Тут слишком большое количество неизвестных.

Но, на мой взгляд, при любом варианте развития событий, даже при заключении мира, Киев утратит контроль над Юго-Востоком. Какие бы соглашения не заключались, мы увидим совершенно новую ситуацию.

«СП»: – Насколько вероятно повторение июньского сценария, когда Порошенко объявил о прекращении огня и использовал время для подготовки решительного наступления на Донецк и Луганск?

– Это маловероятно. Сейчас Порошенко уже нечего перегруппировывать, его армия деморализована, мобилизация сорвана. Былого превосходства сил уже нет, если ополчение и уступает армии, то не на порядок, а в полтора-два раза. По утверждению ополчения, в ствольной артиллерии и вовсе достигнут паритет. Даже перегруппировав силы, Порошенко не сможет начать такое же решительное наступление.

Лучшее, что может сделать Порошенко с военной точки зрения, это стабилизировать фронт, уйти в глухую оборону и добиваться политического решения. Но это будет долгое и кровавое решение. Но я очень сомневаюсь, что украинская армия сможет долго удерживать фронт даже в обороне в условиях политической нестабильности и экономического коллапса.

Старший научный сотрудник Российского института стратегических исследований Олег Неменский считает, что у Порошенко нет другого выхода, как планомерно идти к катастрофе:

– Предложение Путина имеет, в первую очередь, информационное значение. В сложившихся обстоятельствах России и Новороссии важно постоянно показывать свой мирный настрой и конструктивную позицию. Выдвижение таких инициатив важно само по себе. Но очень трудно представить, чтобы оно могло быть реализовано.

Ничего принципиально оригинального в плане Путина нет. Проблема состоит в том, что ни одна из сторон конфликта не заинтересована в мире. При этом Российская Федерация не сторона конфликта, хоть симпатии ее понятны. Переговоры о мире должны проходить между двумя народными республиками и Киевом, что, собственно, и подчеркивает Путин.

Сейчас нет запроса на мир. Прежде всего, со стороны Киева. Нет той общественной силы, которая бы вынудила Порошенко начать переговоры и перейти к установлению мира. Даже если украинская армия будет терпеть поражения за пределами Донецкой и Луганской областей, власть не сможет пойти на мирные соглашения. Народ хочет войны и хочет победы. Нынешнее состояние украинского общества можно описать как военный психоз.

Миру мешают и грядущие выборы Верховной Рады в конце октября. До выборов все политические силы будут соревноваться друг с другом в радикальности лозунгов. После выборов начнут отмечать годовщину Майдана, и массовый психоз достигнет своего апогея. Может быть, условия для мирных проектов сложатся к концу зимы или к весне.

«СП»: – Люди не хотят отправки родственников на войну, но требуют победы.

– Человеческое сознание в принципе противоречиво. Так что нет ничего удивительного в том, что люди не хотят гибели родственников, но хотят победы. Особенно в центральных и западных областях страны.

«СП»: – Если человеческое сознание противоречиво, то пропаганда теперь сможет представить Порошенко как миротворца. С потерей Донбасса тоже многие согласятся, ведь даже многие украинские политики сейчас радуются тому, что страна потеряла Крым.Ukrainian authorities do not want and can not stop the bloodshed in the Donbass.

Vladimir Putin offered the belligerents in Ukraine “road map” on how to stop the bloodshed in the Donbass. However, the peace plan is unlikely to be realized. This will prevent the lack of political will on the part of Kiev, and the fact that the central government does not control all armed groups fighting against the People’s Militia of New Russia.

Their initiative Vladimir Putin announced during his visit to Mongolia. The plan contains seven items. The first to cease all hostilities. The second to withdraw the armed units of the security structures of Ukraine at a distance, precluding the possibility of firing artillery settlements and all kinds of rocket launchers. While respecting the environment should be controlled by international observers. Aviation should abandon the bombing of peaceful towns and villages. In this case, the parties must make the exchange of prisoners by the formula all for all” without conditions, open corridors for delivery of humanitarian supplies to the Donbas and to enable maintenance crews work to restore the infrastructure.

Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of Donetsk Alexander Zaharchenko has already said that the militia has long offered a cease-fire and support Putin’s plan. But Kiev is to get a cease-fire not only the army but also the National Guard units and private battalions.

Apparently, it is this condition and can not fulfill the Ukrainian government. After all, the National Guard and private battalions supplied oligarchs and submit to them. And they, in particular Igor Kolomoisky not tuned to the world.

At the same time, can not be ignored Kiev and the opinion of foreign countries. The West funded Maidan provided diplomatic pressure on Yanukovych and demanded the military operation in the Donbas is clearly not to go at one point in the recognition of people’s republics. “I think the bottom line is that the Russians are not genuinely interested in a ceasefire. They continue to destabilize eastern Ukraine “, – has said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. In this case, the North Atlantic alliance is not limited to words, and sent to the Black Sea the ships. In the waters on Wednesday evening came with guided missiles on board the French corvette Kommandan Biro” and the USS Ross” on the way Canadian frigate “Toronto” and the Spanish frigate “Almirante Juan de Borbon.”

The internal political situation in Ukraine, too, is far from that which would allow a peace agreement. Though he Poroshenko and ready to discuss Putin’s proposal, but his environment requires continuation of the war. “Seven points of the Russian president, ostensibly to deal with the crisis in Ukraine wonderfully reminiscent of a rescue plan for the Russian terrorists” categorically stated Prime Minister of Ukraine Yatsenyuk.

Nevertheless, Ukraine itself is literally bursting at the seams. According appointed governor of Kiev, Donetsk region Taruta if the Ukrainian army will hand surrounded by militia Mariupol, Ukraine will have to admit defeat in the war. The fact is that in the absence of Russian gas supplies to all hope of the Ukrainian energy now for coal. His many in the Donbass, but Kiev has no control over this region. As a result, Ukraine was forced to sign a contract for the supply of million tons of South Africa. But the only port capable of receiving ships with coal, is in Mariupol. So the prospect of the whole country in the winter freeze quite real.

But apparently, in Kiev to think about it do not want. There policies busy election campaign and speak about the imminent military victory. So what’s the most radical militia commanders will soon take the capital of Ukraine sound quite real.

Feasibility of Putin’s plan depends on how the warring parties will perceive it as a real road to peace – says Professor Leonid Polyakov HSE. By militias willingness to work on this plan is much higher. They are really ready to sit down at the negotiating table and start discussing the format Novorossia presence within Ukraine. With regard to Kiev, then there is a large number of problems. Poroshenko halt the military operation will be very difficult. Until now, the “party of war” dominates in Ukrainian politics and in the public mind. Most people are not satisfied with the supply of the army, but not the war. For the Ukrainian leadership is very difficult to transcend themselves and take up of man, who is considered an enemy. There is also a factor in the presence of Western advisers, who are not very interested in going the route of Ukraine, Russia said. Even though the EU is inclined to believe that a political solution is necessary. But it all depends on Kiev.

“SP”: But the Ukrainian media can expand the paradigm and to campaign for peace.

Ukrainian media are in the hands of a few oligarchic groups. So everything will depend on the games of the oligarchs. There will be people ready to play on the sentiments of fatigue and frustration. But there may be, and the more radical, which use complex situation Poroshenko to break itself into power. And if not by new Maidan, at least in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada.

Putin’s plan it is absolutely thoughtful way out, none of the seven-point no one can argue. This proposal is an experienced politician. But the plan falls into the complex context of Kiev, which tied a lot of controversy. So that the execution plan of Kiev a big question. Although the militias are willing to follow the “road map.”

“SP”: Can the West to persuade Kiev to stop the war under the pressure of circumstances success militia?

In the European Union there is no consensus on this topic. Although the leaders of major countries France and Germany should have on Poroshenko pressure in favor of this plan. But there is also the United States, and their interest in the continuation of the conflict as long as possible. To any option of rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine left. Poroshenko in a very difficult situation. He looks like a negotiability man, but he is not independent. And certainly his American friends there is any information that can severely damage it.

President of the Center of Systems Analysis and Forecasting (Ukraine) Rostislav Ishchenko believes that Kiev even with a strong desire will not be able to go to the peace talks:

Implementation of the plan for the settlement is unlikely. The plan itself perfectly normal, but we deal with the inadequate people in Kiev. And it is not even about the Poroshenko, who need a break, and the rest of the Ukrainian authorities. The problem is that the president can not manage something. Territorial battalions completely out of control: who wants to – deserts, who wants to – runs up, who wants to – fighting, others threaten to topple Poroshenko.

In addition, the Ukrainian government sacrifices his own propaganda. She promoted the war, now it is very difficult to explain why she wants to make peace. All last week, despite the defeat of the army of the Ukrainian militia, Kiev propaganda speaks of thousands of dead Russian soldiers and that almost never the whole Russian army massacred. It will be difficult to explain the truce if there is military successes. Public in Kiev and cities in western Ukraine certainly does not want to send their relatives to the war, but the same public wants someone to win this war. People are configured so that the problem is incompetent commanders, and therefore we have to change Poroshenko and Chief of Staff, and then the war will be won.

“SP”: Power in Kiev is dependent on external forces, they can persuade to go to a truce.

Washington did not beneficial to Poroshenko made ​​peace. Americans know how to count, and do not want agreements on the actual recognition of New Russia. After all, this will lead to further defragmentation of Ukraine. Troops will begin to go home, and the uprising may occur in Kharkov and other cities.

Washington understands that the Kiev government went bankrupt on it contain no desire and opportunities. But to throw Kiev to fend for themselves, the United States needs some excuse. If the power will collapse under the pressure of internal problems and management in the country capture militants, Washington will be able to say that the legitimate president overthrown by someone unknown, so continue to support Ukraine we will not. But this is only possible if the will continue to defeat the Ukrainian army. But that will get Washington right now? Agreement on the de facto recognition of the DNI and LC? Then the question is: why do not have to settle for federalization, and now recognize the independence of the republics?

Let’s look at Washington’s position. He is trying to move into the plane of Russian opposition groups to strengthen NATO in Eastern Europe, the supply disruption Mistral”. Ukraine is perceived as overcame the United States to leave. Let’s see what will happen next.

“SP”: In the West say about the possible input peacekeepers, including Russian. Then the conflict will not spread to Kharkiv.

But you need to separate the troops, so you need to contact with the host of the New Russia Kiev. I’ll have to create a buffer zone and enter the peacekeepers there. But if Kiev will order troops to withdraw and allow you to enter the Russian peacekeepers, it will be the last day of Ukrainian regime, its just overthrown radicals.

“SP”: – Army Novorossia comes Ukrainian army disperses. What could end the conflict?

It all depends on how fast the army of New Russia will increase its military capabilities. To advance further, it is necessary to control their communication to keep garrisons in the cities. If after a week or two, the number of volunteers will be more than 40 thousand people, the New Russia will attack. Military defeat of Kiev from the front crash be joining the already political disaster.

But there is no guarantee that the militia forces will increase rapidly. If now is the operational pause, the Kiev regime may strengthen. At least he will have the time. Will become apparent diplomatic contacts. But it will be difficult to predict promotion militia in the West. There is a possibility that the start of the uprising in major Ukrainian cities. But we do not know whether they will begin to start and if so, when. Here too many unknowns.

But, in my opinion, in any scenario, even if the conclusion of peace, Kiev loses control of the South-East. Whatever agreements have not been concluded, we will see an entirely new situation.

“SP”: How likely is a repeat of the June scenario where Poroshenko announced a cease-fire and used the time to prepare for a decisive attack on the Donetsk and Lugansk?

It is highly unlikely. Now Poroshenko has nothing to regroup his army is demoralized, mobilization foiled. Former superiority of forces is no longer if the militia and inferior army, it is not an order of magnitude and a half to two times. According to the militia, in cannon artillery and does reach parity. Even regroup, Poroshenko not be able to start the same offensive.

The best thing that can make Poroshenko from a military point of view, it is to stabilize the front, go on the defensive and seek a political solution. But it will be a long and bloody decision. But I very much doubt that the Ukrainian army will be able to hold the front for a long time, even in the defense in the context of political instability and economic collapse.

Senior researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Oleg Nemensky believes that Poroshenko no choice but to systematically go to disaster:

Putin’s proposal is, first of all, the information value. In these circumstances, Russia and New Russia is important to constantly show their peaceful attitude and constructive attitude. Such initiatives is important in itself. But it is very difficult to imagine that it could be implemented.

Nothing essentially original in Putin’s plan is not. The problem is that none of the parties to the conflict are not interested in peace. The Russian Federation is not party to the conflict, although its sympathies are clear. Peace negotiations should take place between the two People’s Republic and Kiev, which, in fact, emphasizes Putin.

Now there is no demand on the world. First of all, by Kiev. None of the social forces that have forced Poroshenko begin negotiations and to move towards peace. Even if the Ukrainian army will be defeated outside the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the government will not be able to go to the peace agreements. The people want the war and wants to win. The current state of Ukrainian society can be described as a war psychosis.

Peace and prevent future election to the Verkhovna Rada in late October. Before the elections, all political forces will compete with each other in radical slogans. After the election, will celebrate the anniversary of the Maidan, and mass hysteria reaches its climax. Maybe the conditions for peaceful projects will develop by the end of the winter or the spring.

“SP”: People do not want to send relatives to the war, but require a victory.

The human consciousness is in principle inconsistent. So there is nothing surprising in the fact that people do not want the death of relatives, but they want to win. Especially in the central and western regions of the country.

“SP”: If the human mind is contradictory, the promotion will now be able to submit Poroshenko as a peacemaker. With the loss of Donbass, too many would agree, because even many Ukrainian politicians now rejoice that the country has lost the Crimea.

But then Poroshenko will have to explain to the people that made it so reborn, because he used to say opposite things. If he renounces his former position, then becomes another politician. And it is not clear on what grounds then he heads to Ukraine. Poroshenko for the foreseeable future, this option is not there. He the leader of the war party.”

“SP”: In the country‘s economic and political crisis, the army was defeated, and the war must continue.

It is unlikely that most Poroshenko accept such a situation. But he had no choice. A war could continue in any conditions. Even if people will not have heat, electricity, hot water and other creature comforts, and the front has moved to Kiev. The war will go up as long as the attitude of society will not be replaced with a war for recognition as an equal party militias. If now Poroshenko abandon hostilities, it will lose significant support in the community, and its former adversaries still not be supported.

– Но тогда Порошенко надо будет объяснить народу, что заставило его так переродиться, ведь раньше он говорил противоположные вещи. Если он отрекается от прежних позиций, то становится уже другим политиком. И не ясно, на каких тогда основаниях он возглавляет Украину. Для Порошенко в обозримом будущем такого варианта просто нет. Он – лидер «партии войны».

«СП»: – В стране экономический и политический кризис, армия терпит поражение, а войну надо продолжать.

– Вряд ли самого Порошенко устраивает такая ситуация. Но выбора у него нет. А войну можно продолжать в любых условиях. Даже если у людей не будет тепла, электричества, горячей воды и прочих благ цивилизации, а фронт передвинется к Киеву. Война будет идти до тех пор, пока не сменится настрой общества с войны на признание ополченцев как равной стороны. Если сейчас Порошенко откажется от военных действий, он потеряет значимую поддержку в обществе, а его прежние противники всё равно поддерживать не будут.

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