The scenario of the third world war !

In the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine interfere volunteers United States and Western Europe.

Mihhail Hodarjonok .

Have to repeat once again the statement from time to time voiced by Russian politicians ultraliberal views of the “problem has no military solution” and “end all wars of the world”, to actually have no relationship. Wars end only one – a crushing defeat some brilliant victories and others. If there was the phrase “there is no military solution”, it means that one of the parties to the conflict simply have no strength for the victorious conclusion of the war. And if some armed confrontation and ends kind of like a draw, so it is perhaps with the complete depletion of military capabilities on both sides. Of course, possible options with some very minor deviations from this general line.
At the beginning of the next and future tasks parties to the conflict in the south-eastern Ukraine.
For the Kiev leadership and the nearest, and further, and enduring purpose at historically foreseeable future is only one thing: to restore the territorial integrity of the country by any means, primarily military. Strategic goal – to wipe out militias southeast. Waiting for negotiations to change the constitution of Ukraine in the right way for unrecognized territories, the federalization of the south-east – all from only assumptions and imagination games. Carthage (ie separatist southeast) must be destroyed – and this thesis, no doubt, will be dominant in all Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy. Adhere to today different views among the elite Square means immediate political suicide. While the forces and means to solve the problem by military means, Kiev has not. But this does not constitute a waiver of the Ukrainian leadership on the policy of the military crushing the southeast.

 In the south-eastern Ukraine are fighting two Soviet armies: one sample 1991, other more modernized version.

 Harder with unrecognized southeast. It’s all a lot of fog. Demand self-determination of these areas is possible, but what’s next? How to live on this piece of land when it is impracticable to provide economic, financial and any other independent southeast (or rather, two ragged and extremely curvaceous pieces of Donetsk and Lugansk regions)? Require federalization also theoretically permissible, but it never, under any circumstances, give the official Kiev. Return to the Square? But already shed so much blood, the scale of the destruction of infrastructure in the region is amazing, and the gulf between the parties to the conflict is so great that it is hardly possible without subsequent massacres and mass executions of insurgents from the central Ukrainian authorities. In general, full zugzwang – what to do, it is not clear to anyone, and each step can only worsen the situation. It seems that the political line of the south-east, in these circumstances, there can be only one – hiding behind a veil of verbal, temporize. And then, suddenly, something will happen.
In this regard, we should not forget one important fact. In predicting the future futurists of all stripes often used the same reception. From the point of view of the representative anti-aircraft missile troops, what in the past was the author – is the hypothesis of rectilinear uniform motion targets. A significant part of the forecast is based on this postulate.
But there is a theory of the “Black Swan.” Its author – Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote about her book “The Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability. ” Theory considers difficult to predict, and rare events that involve significant consequences.
In other words, the processes of the real world it is impossible to describe in terms of only one of mathematics using even the most advanced models. From a certain point, anything and everything can go contrary to predictions, extremely wrong. It seems that this is built unspoken political line of the south-east – to wait. And we’ll see. Good or bad – only time will tell.

                                                                            Сценарий третьей мировой         Today, in the south-eastern Ukraine, the cease-fire. But all parties seem to realize that this is not the end, but rather just a pause before the summer campaign.
We now turn to the hypothetical scenario of the situation in the south-east of Ukraine (particularly emphasize – only scenarios from hypotheses and assumptions).
What is a war in the south-east from the point of view of the art of war? In fact the two are fighting the Soviet army. One – sample 1991 (it is the armed forces of Ukraine), the other – more modernized version of the same Soviet army – better prepared tactically against staffed by more competent professionals to manage quality. And with the recent armed confrontation is carried out solely on the ground – only by the combined arms units. Their air forces in the south-east is not, and Ukrainian – before a few – Air Force during the conflict gradually disappeared. Serviceable aircraft and trained pilots from the Square is almost gone. Many similar development environment contributed by volunteers southeast to regular air defense. Sometimes for the same purpose and skillfully acted fairly quietly and vacationers on their planes. But from the point of view of the art of war armed confrontation in the south-east – just a few of the modernized version of World at its final stage. Neither one nor the other side is not nor has identified new weapons and military equipment or new techniques and methods of warfare.
                                   

As you know, on the southeast side of the battle volunteers vacationers. As a rule – on the regular armed. Now suppose that option (again, hypothetically, why not), that the armed forces of Ukraine began arriving volunteers and vacationers from the United States and Western Europe, and also on the regular armed.
Let’s start with the Air Force. Suppose airfields Kharkov, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye steel landing F-15, F-16, F-22, A-10, “Panavia Tornado” E-8A, E-3A. Previous markings and hull numbers painted on their site marked trident and yellow-blue flags of Ukraine. Prior to this, many trains on the Ukrainian airbase imported fuel and the most modern air attack.The scenario of the third world

Сценарий третьей мировойCollage Andrew Gray
In the Black Sea coast for the past 140 years prostituting politically Bulgaria deployed three AUG (carrier strike groups). A typical composition of each – one nuclear strike aircraft carrier, two cruisers URO-three, three-four destroyers URO, three or four drums of nuclear submarines.
In the area of ​​Mariupol, Pavlograd, raisins, Lozovoi unloaded armored and mechanized divisions of volunteers from the West, complete with tanks “Abrams”, “Leopard”, “Leclerc” BMP “Marder” and “Bradley” modern artillery.
In addition, it should be mentioned about the volunteer units and subunits (also staffed holidaymakers US and Western Europe), electronic warfare, communications, unmanned aerial vehicles and so forth., And so on. Do not forget also about the volunteer units logistics and technical support, without which modern war.

 Now the question. How long will hold on militias southeast if the war enters a qualitatively different enemy units and on LC and DNR showered modern aircraft weapons – bunker busters, bombs with laser and satellite-guided cruise missiles, combat units of the air and sea-based? If the battle formations will be attacked newest armored combat vehicles and artillery? And all of this action will be provided by the military splendor has no analogues in the world, even an approximate US intelligence of all kinds? And the planes of the West volunteers will be chasing each BMP, gun, tank units and formations of the south-east, bomb separately taken trench firing point, the position of the mortar. And hit the target with penalties commensurate with the size of the trench.
I repeat the question: how many armed groups will hold the southeast? Day? Two? Week? The answer, unfortunately, is: well, if several hours.
Of course, the volunteers from the southeast can support their elders – the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. And now at this very moment – perhaps shave – start World War III.
This version of events – Crystal dream of the modern Ukrainian leadership. But the Anglo-Saxon blood is too expensive to shed her future happiness of some semi-wild Ukrainians. Therefore, such a scenario is still to be assessed as a game too heated imagination.
And if you still continue to dream and try to imagine how the development might look like the conflict in the South-West strategic direction, if it under whatever flag turn on all the parties concerned.

 For example, we still do not have any operational Air Force Association (however, no longer themselves as the Air Force of the Armed Forces), equipped with modern aircraft with a margin of new aircraft weapons at least 30 days of warfare.
Black Sea Fleet today, unfortunately – a branch of the Central Naval Museum. On the Black Sea Fleet ships can study the history of the Soviet shipbuilding 60-70s.
Yes, and combined arms formations and units, if you collect all that is in the former North Caucasus Military District, will not exceed 1.5 Army Corps (by Western standards). 1st Ukrainian Front from the available set of forces and resources is clearly not sformiruesh. Operational nature reserves in the district no. That is the operational-strategic tasks available on YUZSN formations and units clearly can not afford.
Add to understanding the gravity of the situation only one thing: if every American aircraft carrier four – six specialized electronic warfare aircraft, we have all the BBC there is no such a machine.
There is another very important point – the operational equipment theater of war in the South-West strategic direction very little meets the challenges of successful warfare. Airfield network, the number and quality of roads and railways is not fully meet the requirements of armed confrontation. It suffices to note that some railroads pass through the territory of Ukraine and it is famous for YUZSN quadrangle in which there are no railways. In short, the first rokadnaya railroad goes through Ukraine, and the next – only through Volgograd. And as you know, where it ends the railway, and there ends the war.

 As for the quartering of formations, units and divisions on the Armed Forces YUZSN, they are located mainly in the North Caucasus Military District funds Soviet era. In those days, it was a district in the rear with a small set of units and reduced strength and frame. The situation in this respect since 1991 has changed slightly. But now the neighbor County is the most militant and anti-Russian sentiments country – modern Ukraine.
 There is a legitimate question: what did you do the last 20 years? This period in the life of Russian Armed Forces still waiting for its impartial historian. While concisely can say the following. All the power in 1990-2000, probably went to the continuous organizational and staffing measures. Type: form, then the same disband, then it is restored again to disband, and incidentally with the purposes exclusively optimize and improve the organizational structure of the reset military science and education, to cut at the root of the military academies under the pretext of their relocation, during continuous cuts and Regroup lose valuable employees. Just two words – “reform” and “optimization” – Harmful effects on the lives of the Armed Forces are comparable, perhaps, only with the consequences of the application of a series of MRAU (massive missile and air strikes).
Perhaps, if we look at the matter critically, a brand new it never created (at least this is debatable). Marking time, in fact, more than 20 years on the spot, while other countries have made a breakthrough in military affairs. If there has been a positive trend, it is only with the advent of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
And somebody should be responsible for it – at least in terms of objective analysis of the situation. Let’s try to sort of defense ministers in recent years – from Pavel Grachev to Anatoly Serdyukov.
One of them can be called “a prominent builder of the Armed Forces of Modern Russia”? Or enter a line in the performance appraisal: “A talented military theorist, has made a significant contribution to the strengthening of the defense power of the state”? Finally, the “developed, established and introduced, adopted a”?

 Try to include in their characteristics the following lines:

    “Extraordinary concentration, inquisitive mind, analytical skills, ability to make correct conclusions forward looking”;
    
“Creative mind and a remarkable memory, the ability to quickly grasp the situation, to foresee the development of events”;
    
“Has a rich combat experience, erudition, high operational and strategic training, gave all his strength training and education of military personnel, the development of military science”;
    
“Differed deep knowledge of the matter, persistent daily work, high culture and personal charm”;
    
“Dedication, professionalism and intelligence.”

Presented a line above heads, we can say – almost nothing fits, however. Or suitable, but very little. At best, all of the persons engaged in only one – “merge-pour”, and then cut. But the court is impartial history – no matter how inflated cheeks and shaggy eyebrows John Doe in the past, he will write response is not the generals for special assignments from his inner circle.
As a conclusion. What can we do to domestic armed forces in the event of such conflict development? Report threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons? Type: if you do not stop, we will strike at the Ukrainian nuclear power plants, chemical facilities, a cascade of hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper River in order to create areas of flooding and destruction. But it is known to be a double edged sword. And the long-range tactical nuclear weapons delivery vehicles not so much. After all, their own hands destroyed most desired class missiles for defense – INF.
 Of course, all of the above described and no more than speculation, imagination and conjecture.
A conclusion of the Ukrainian crisis can be only one – under no circumstances should not be allowed to pull the conflict in the south-east of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Our country, the army and navy, it is necessary to objectively observe are not ready for large-scale armed confrontation using only conventional weapons. If you sort out all the criteria of the state of readiness for war (training of the Armed Forces, preparing the country’s economy, the preparation of the country for the benefit of the Armed Forces, preparing the population for defense), then most of them have very significant problems.
And it should be uprated (downright Bolshevik) rates strengthen the country’s defense, to create the Armed Forces of Russia, meeting the highest standards of modern warfare. And the first thing to stop nervously organizational and staffing fever.


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