Ukraine would be the nuclear button?

Украина окажется ядерной кнопкой?. Горбачев полагает, что между США и Россией может начаться большая война. Многие опасаются того же

Gorbachev believes that the US and Russia could start a major war. Many fear the same!

The first and only president of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev decided to loud rise from political oblivion. He warned the world that the Cold War between Russia and the United States has reached such a stage that can grow into a real fighting between the most powerful nuclear powers. He said: “Unfortunately, I can not say firmly that the Cold War did not result in a” hot “. I am afraid that they (the US – a comment. “JV”) may take the risk. “

It should be recognized that concerns policy that turned the former Soviet Union in the “thoroughfare” for the “masters of destinies” of world history from the American citadel of democracy,” not unfounded. Actually, the same thing and says the new military doctrine of the Russian Federation, adopted at the end of last year. In this important document for our country contains a provision on the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike in response to aggression, attack on the territorial integrity of the State or the protection of the existing political system from attacks from outside.

Recent developments in the South-East of Ukraine did not give a reason for historical optimism.

President of the National Strategy Institute Mikhail Remizov agrees with the assessment of the state of the current level of relations between Russia and the West as the Cold War. However, a direct analogy with the Cold War period of the bipolar world, in his opinion, is inappropriate.
– Now we are not talking about Russia’s claim to the status of second pole of power. Rather, we should talk about trying to fend off the geopolitical strategy of suffocation large, but a single country. In addition to, but not in the best socio-economic situation.

“SP”:(Free Press)– As far as the rights of Gorbachev, who predicts Russia and the West hot” phase of confrontation?
The main risk is not that the US and its Western allies declare open war on Russia. Rather, they can place the red flags” for which Moscow would not dare to go. Including in the form of its military presence on the territory of Ukraine. Option presence of US and NATO troops in Ukraine, this is the factor that will be Rubicon for Moscow.

“SP”: pro-American party in the parliament, which requires Poroshenko declared war on Russia, is controlled by a figure or valid internal logic of confrontation?

– The process is running, it has its own inertia. Therefore it is not so important, choreographed whether these actions directly or not. It is clear that the task of the ruling political class in Ukraine as closely as possible to draw the United States into a direct military confrontation with Russia. This would be an ideal option for them. At the same time these people completely overlook the fact that in this case it would be a battleground for Ukraine itself, from which in this case, there is little left. In fact, they just want to get direct security guarantees. The most obvious expression would be the presence of US military facilities in different regions of Ukraine

“SP”: It is a violation of the “Big Treaty”, and consequently – the abolition of the recognition of the territorial integrity of Ukraine by the Russian Federation?

After the reunification of the Crimea with Russia on this treaty can forget. This path could have been completed script section of Ukraine as a post-war Germany. That is a line from the West “stakeAmericans, we come from the East. And then there will be no reason to deny the recognition of the Donbas.

“SP”: What is the logic of Washington: blackmail RF expulsion from globalized “paradise”, customized for the interests of the United States after World War II, and further squeezed to the end?

– In my opinion, American politicians rather try to punish Moscow than affect its position. From the point of view of the Americans, Moscow has violated the rules of the global game, encroaching on US dominance in the world. And, then, the Russian Federation must be pointedly revealing and punished. It needs to scrub back to modest geopolitical corral”. When it is said that the sanctions would not change Moscow’s position for the United States is not important. The main thing is to show that the perpetrator punished. The second factor is to maintain the glow of the conflict that turns into a constant factor of the watershed between Russia and Europe. As well as creating an ideal area of vulnerability for Russia.

If on the territory of Ukraine will begin the negative dynamics of Washington (such as militias take new regions), it will ensure the presence there of troops of third countries (Poland, Lithuania) as a guarantee that this process will not go further.

Few serious analysts would deny that the Cold War between Russia and the West is, according to the chief of security solutions sector problems Centre for Defence Studies RISS Sergey Ermakov.

I would like to draw attention to something else, that during the Cold War we did not have “hot” touch.

“SP”: Well, what about Vietnam or North Korea in military engagements that involved not just Soviet equipment, but also pilots and instructors? From the United States – the same picture.

In fact, the Soviet Union and the United States then took part in a “hybrid war”. In Ukraine, the situation could reach a direct collision. It is a war in Europe, where we see the American experts, who act as volunteers.” The trend to the fact that the scope of their presence will only expand. The commander of the land forces in Europe, the United States recently visited Kiev. After that, there is talk of sending of American instructors.

“SP”: – How far can the “hot” contact other countries on the territory of Ukraine?

If the supply of arms to begin serious, it will be NATO equipment that Ukrainian recruits hardly learned in a short time. Have to involve the US military personnel. This will provoke Russia to “mirror measures”. In this situation, the probability of an armed clash very high. In a recent article in the Financial Times, former US ambassador to NATO, campaigning for direct delivery of lethal weapons. And the leadership of Poland said he was willing to sell Kiev Soviet heavy machinery.

“SP”: And what will happen if the militia would try to go beyond the NPT and LC, creating Crimean land corridor?” Radicals of Parliament voted for recognition of Russia aggressor country.” In such a situation may direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, going beyond “hybrid war”?

This is difficult to exclude.

“SP”: In the field of conventional arms, we are seriously losing the aggregate potential of the NATO countries. In this situation the nuclear club” our last argument?

I do not tend to hang on NATO derogatory labels such as “paper tiger.” Armaments is a huge potential, is ten times higher than the Russian. Only one US military budget exceeds the combined defense spending of all countries of the world. And if we add the potential of NATO, it is more than a trillion dollars a year.

“SP”: hardly makes sense to try to compete with NATO in the field of conventional arms?

In the new military program of the Russian Federation clearly spelled out the possibility to apply tactical nuclear weapons and strategic forces even if there is a threat of territorial integrity and Gosstroy. There is a certain “red line”, where NATO can use its full potential. This is the fifth article of the Washington Treaty. In fact, to expand all these “paper shelf”, will take time. To Spain, Portugal, Poland and the Baltic states at the same time lined up and made combat schedule.

“SP”: The Pentagon has already announced regrouping their units in areas adjacent to Ukraine NATO countries.

This applies to US forces in Europe (about 60,000 troops). According to Washington, it is the shock body of NATO, which can be use. And, of which 15 thousand – instantly, and the other by rotation.

“SP”: purely quantitative is not impressive.

Why? On a par with the proposed transaction deployment and mobilization. This will apply the most advanced guidance systems, anti-tank missiles that will reach advantage. There are no militias such equipment.

“SP”: How can Russia respond to explicit military intervention in Ukrainian events from the outside?

In military doctrine clearly written as soon as the threat to the territorial integrity and political system in Russia. Currently, the most obvious casus belli (casus belli – approx. Ed.) Is the Crimea. That neither Kiev nor the West do not recognize Russian. Any military operation against the Crimea entail answer all Russian power. Using a last resort – that is tactical (as necessary) and strategic nuclear forces.

“SP”: – How to behave in Turkey in case of aggression against the Crimea because of this power depends on compliance with the Convention of Montreux?

Going into the Black Sea, the Americans may try to implement the concept of rapid global strike using cruise missiles from aircraft carriers. On the other hand, such an escalation are not interested, not only we, but also the West. By the way, Turkey, regardless of their membership in NATO and the distance can not get involved in this conflict. Ankara may refuse to provide the Straits and the airbase.

In Eastern Europe, the US has a number of countries (Poland, the Baltic countries), which is sufficient in terms of military tactics to wage war against Russia. This is a very lucrative foothold. On the other hand, there is not yet placed base for storage of nuclear weapons. Although emergency Brussels will speak about “unforeseen circumstances” that require response. However, the question for the West to respond using tactical nuclear weapons has not been fully resolved.

There are serious concerns that such a turn of events would require the use of strategic nuclear weapons. In response, Russia has no choice but to use its full potential. This is a well-informed Western partners. That’s why they try not to be the escalation of the conflict in this stage.

NATO countries rely on the latest conventional weapons that will knock out the militia to the border with Russia. And this would be sufficient. Talk about how Moscow would react to the military presence of NATO in the Donbass – is from speculation. Incontestable red line– a territory of Russia, part of which appears Crimea.

 

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